KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

77%

75%

75%

64%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.0¢Risks 77.95u

ICONNO 22.0¢Risks 22.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.05u · ICON −22.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	86.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	5.2%	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	91.0%	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	76.4%	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	31.1%	76.2%	—	—	63.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	60.4%	84.7%	0.0%	—	62.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	84.4%	46.4%	86.1%	—	69.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	30.9%	9.0%	87.1%	—	64.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	88.1%	33.7%	88.9%	—	69.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	50.0%	30.0%	70.7%	—	67.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	4.5%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	45.6%	73.1%	85.4%	—	77.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	31.0%	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	53.7%	90.2%	82.8%	—	73.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	42.5%	92.3%	—	—	73.2%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	39.4%	55.8%	48.0%	—	70.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	65.6%	52.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	39.8%	49.0%	54.1%	—	69.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	38.5%	56.3%	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	35.1%	65.9%	88.1%	0.0%	71.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	36.7%	56.7%	0.0%	—	73.3%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	33.1%	66.9%	77.6%	43.0%	75.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	27.3%	71.7%	84.8%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	36.5%	75.4%	84.1%	0.0%	82.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	39.8%	81.8%	82.6%	—	86.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	48.7%	88.0%	87.4%	61.9%	84.3%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	63.7%	91.9%	91.3%	—	86.1%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	74.4%	95.3%	93.2%	76.6%	92.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	81.9%	97.8%	95.6%	—	93.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	75.0%	97.4%	93.9%	81.9%	91.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	81.9%	93.7%	93.2%	—	93.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	81.0°F	4.6°F	2026-09-26 18:00	0.0066
WeatherNext 2	77%	77.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0534
IFS HRES	75%	77.9°F	5.0°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0625
IFS Ensemble	75%	77.8°F	4.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0635
ICON	64%	76.2°F	4.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.1296
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 14:00	0.2070
National Blend	52%	74.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.2343

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗