KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 28 · 14:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

58%

37%

34%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

ICONNO 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.75u · ICON −56.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T14:01:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T03:20:03+00:00	77.5%	52.4%	49.0%	53.2%	39.2%
2026-09-27T04:05:15+00:00	77.5%	52.4%	49.0%	53.2%	39.2%
2026-09-27T04:50:23+00:00	77.5%	52.4%	49.0%	53.2%	17.9%
2026-09-27T05:35:33+00:00	77.5%	52.4%	50.0%	53.2%	17.9%
2026-09-27T06:20:40+00:00	77.5%	52.4%	50.0%	53.2%	17.9%
2026-09-27T07:05:46+00:00	77.5%	52.4%	50.0%	53.2%	17.9%
2026-09-27T07:51:31+00:00	78.2%	52.4%	50.0%	43.8%	17.9%
2026-09-27T08:36:56+00:00	78.2%	52.4%	50.0%	43.8%	17.9%
2026-09-27T09:22:01+00:00	78.2%	52.4%	50.0%	43.8%	17.9%
2026-09-27T10:07:06+00:00	78.2%	52.4%	50.0%	43.8%	17.9%
2026-09-27T10:52:12+00:00	78.2%	52.4%	50.0%	43.8%	17.9%
2026-09-27T11:37:22+00:00	78.2%	40.1%	60.7%	43.8%	17.9%
2026-09-27T12:22:27+00:00	78.2%	40.1%	60.7%	43.8%	17.9%
2026-09-27T13:07:35+00:00	78.2%	40.1%	60.7%	43.8%	17.9%
2026-09-27T13:52:48+00:00	83.2%	40.2%	60.7%	43.8%	17.8%
2026-09-28T03:28:06+00:00	81.4%	38.2%	62.7%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-28T04:13:31+00:00	81.4%	38.2%	62.7%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-28T04:58:38+00:00	81.4%	38.2%	56.5%	45.6%	8.7%
2026-09-28T05:43:49+00:00	81.4%	38.2%	56.5%	45.6%	8.7%
2026-09-28T06:28:57+00:00	81.4%	38.2%	56.5%	45.6%	8.7%
2026-09-28T07:14:02+00:00	81.4%	38.2%	56.5%	45.6%	8.7%
2026-09-28T08:00:03+00:00	83.7%	38.2%	56.5%	36.7%	8.7%
2026-09-28T08:45:30+00:00	83.7%	38.2%	56.5%	36.7%	8.7%
2026-09-28T09:30:35+00:00	83.7%	38.2%	56.5%	36.7%	8.7%
2026-09-28T10:15:41+00:00	83.7%	38.2%	56.5%	36.7%	8.7%
2026-09-28T11:00:57+00:00	83.7%	34.2%	57.8%	36.7%	8.7%
2026-09-28T11:46:09+00:00	83.7%	34.2%	57.8%	36.7%	8.7%
2026-09-28T12:31:15+00:00	83.7%	34.2%	57.8%	36.7%	8.7%
2026-09-28T13:16:23+00:00	83.7%	34.2%	57.8%	36.7%	8.7%
2026-09-28T14:01:31+00:00	77.9%	34.2%	57.8%	36.7%	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	80.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-28 06:00	0.0488
WeatherNext 2	58%	78.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.1781
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 02:00	0.1954
National Blend	43%	76.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-28 06:00	0.3295
IFS HRES	37%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.4007
IFS Ensemble	34%	75.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.4330
ICON	9%	72.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.8354

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 27 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 78°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗