KBOI / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 28 · 14:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

58%

37%

34%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

ICONNO 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.75u · ICON −56.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	75.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	58.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	80.7%	—	—	55.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	59.0%	—	—	46.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	15.9%	58.1%	—	—	43.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	39.6%	68.9%	0.0%	—	41.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	67.7%	26.0%	70.3%	—	47.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	14.2%	2.8%	71.1%	—	41.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	71.9%	15.4%	73.2%	—	46.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	26.5%	12.5%	46.7%	—	42.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	1.0%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	22.1%	48.2%	65.4%	—	54.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	12.1%	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	27.4%	72.6%	60.0%	—	47.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	18.4%	76.2%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	15.9%	27.9%	21.8%	—	42.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	36.3%	24.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	15.1%	21.2%	25.1%	—	39.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	13.8%	26.2%	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	11.4%	34.1%	63.9%	0.0%	40.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	11.8%	24.9%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	9.4%	33.1%	45.4%	14.7%	43.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	6.6%	37.0%	54.8%	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	10.0%	40.1%	52.5%	0.0%	50.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	10.9%	47.4%	48.7%	—	55.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	14.9%	56.7%	55.4%	24.0%	50.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	24.2%	63.7%	62.3%	—	51.4%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	33.1%	72.0%	65.5%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	41.0%	80.8%	71.5%	—	63.3%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	66.8%	30.3%	77.4%	63.9%	39.1%	57.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	67.6%	37.0%	61.4%	59.8%	—	59.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	80.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-28 06:00	0.0488
WeatherNext 2	58%	78.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.1781
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 02:00	0.1954
National Blend	43%	76.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-28 06:00	0.3295
IFS HRES	37%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.4007
IFS Ensemble	34%	75.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.4330
ICON	9%	72.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.8354

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20260930-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 27 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 78°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗