KBOI / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

90%

89%

79%

75%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 87.2¢Risks 87.25u

EPSNO 12.7¢Risks 12.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +12.75u · EPS −12.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T03:04:36+00:00	70.5%	62.3%	73.1%	85.0%	75.0%
2026-09-25T03:49:47+00:00	70.5%	62.3%	73.1%	85.0%	75.0%
2026-09-25T04:34:53+00:00	70.5%	62.3%	73.1%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T05:20:00+00:00	70.5%	62.3%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T06:05:07+00:00	70.5%	62.3%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T06:50:11+00:00	70.5%	62.3%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T07:35:21+00:00	65.3%	62.3%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T08:20:26+00:00	65.3%	62.3%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T09:05:32+00:00	65.3%	62.3%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T09:50:36+00:00	65.3%	62.3%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T10:35:42+00:00	65.3%	62.3%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T11:20:49+00:00	65.3%	60.8%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T12:05:54+00:00	65.3%	60.8%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T12:51:00+00:00	65.3%	60.8%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T13:36:07+00:00	41.8%	60.8%	62.9%	85.0%	68.3%
2026-09-25T14:23:08+00:00	41.8%	60.7%	62.9%	85.0%	68.4%
2026-09-25T15:08:14+00:00	41.8%	61.9%	62.9%	85.0%	68.4%
2026-09-25T15:53:19+00:00	41.8%	61.9%	62.9%	85.0%	68.4%
2026-09-25T16:38:25+00:00	41.8%	61.9%	62.9%	85.0%	47.7%
2026-09-25T17:23:33+00:00	41.8%	61.9%	50.9%	85.0%	47.7%
2026-09-25T18:09:00+00:00	41.8%	61.9%	50.9%	85.0%	47.7%
2026-09-25T18:54:09+00:00	41.8%	61.9%	50.9%	85.0%	47.7%
2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00	99.2%	61.9%	50.9%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00	99.2%	61.9%	50.9%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00	99.2%	61.9%	50.9%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00	99.2%	61.9%	50.9%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00	99.2%	61.9%	50.9%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00	99.2%	61.9%	80.5%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00	99.2%	61.9%	80.5%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00	99.2%	61.9%	80.5%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	80.5%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-26T02:26:32+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	80.5%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-26T03:11:51+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	80.5%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-26T03:56:59+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	80.5%	88.8%	47.7%
2026-09-26T04:42:12+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	80.5%	88.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T05:27:21+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	81.7%	88.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T06:12:27+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	81.7%	88.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T06:57:33+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	81.7%	88.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T07:43:21+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	81.7%	84.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T08:28:42+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	81.7%	84.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T09:13:49+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	81.7%	84.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T09:58:54+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	81.7%	84.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T10:44:07+00:00	99.9%	61.9%	81.7%	84.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T11:29:24+00:00	99.9%	73.4%	87.8%	84.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T12:14:32+00:00	99.9%	73.4%	87.8%	84.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T12:59:37+00:00	99.9%	73.4%	87.8%	84.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T13:44:48+00:00	99.6%	73.4%	87.8%	84.8%	95.0%
2026-09-26T14:32:21+00:00	99.6%	73.4%	87.8%	84.9%	95.0%
2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	87.8%	84.9%	95.0%
2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	87.8%	84.9%	95.0%
2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	87.8%	84.9%	89.2%
2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	87.8%	84.9%	89.2%
2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	87.8%	84.9%	89.2%
2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	87.8%	84.9%	89.2%
2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	87.8%	90.4%	89.2%
2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	87.8%	90.4%	89.2%
2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	87.8%	90.4%	89.2%
2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	87.8%	90.4%	89.2%
2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	87.8%	90.4%	89.2%
2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	79.1%	90.4%	89.2%
2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	79.1%	90.4%	89.2%
2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00	99.6%	74.6%	79.1%	90.4%	89.2%
2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00	99.9%	74.6%	79.1%	90.4%	89.2%
2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00	99.9%	74.6%	79.1%	90.4%	89.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	89.2°F	4.9°F	2026-09-26 18:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	90%	82.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0092
ICON	89%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0117
WeatherNext 2	79%	77.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0437
IFS Ensemble	75%	79.8°F	8.0°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0645
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-26 14:00	0.2125
National Blend	51%	74.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.2430

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261001-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗