KBOI / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

90%

89%

79%

75%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 87.2¢Risks 87.25u

EPSNO 12.7¢Risks 12.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +12.75u · EPS −12.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	36.8%	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	14.9%	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	80.7%	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	2.6%	87.2%	—	—	86.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	6.9%	1.1%	—	82.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	51.5%	17.9%	47.1%	—	79.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	25.1%	11.0%	93.0%	—	85.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	93.1%	91.0%	93.6%	—	90.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	85.2%	99.8%	99.1%	—	92.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	19.0%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	81.6%	96.1%	89.5%	—	93.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	92.8%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	74.9%	71.0%	90.6%	—	96.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	58.5%	73.2%	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	72.1%	91.4%	96.5%	—	94.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	60.9%	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	69.7%	65.1%	95.1%	—	91.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	76.3%	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	93.0%	81.7%	63.9%	91.9%	—	91.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	84.6%	73.3%	0.0%	—	92.9%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	73.0%	83.2%	92.4%	74.9%	92.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	79.2%	85.5%	94.2%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	84.1%	92.5%	97.7%	89.4%	96.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	94.7%	94.4%	98.8%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	95.0%	97.4%	99.5%	90.5%	97.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	97.0%	97.9%	98.8%	—	97.9%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	97.3%	97.3%	98.2%	92.7%	98.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	95.9%	97.3%	98.5%	—	98.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	92.9%	97.8%	96.3%	95.6%	95.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	96.6%	97.9%	98.1%	—	97.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	89.2°F	4.9°F	2026-09-26 18:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	90%	82.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0092
ICON	89%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0117
WeatherNext 2	79%	77.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0437
IFS Ensemble	75%	79.8°F	8.0°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0645
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-26 14:00	0.2125
National Blend	51%	74.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.2430

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261001-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗