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KBOI / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 85°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 01 · 06:57 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
48%
HRES
12%
WN2
6%
EPS
5%
ICON
3%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 25.7¢Risks 25.70u
VS
ICONNO 74.3¢Risks 74.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.30u · ICON −74.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.2% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.6% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.4% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.8% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.3% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.8% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.5% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.2% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.8% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.3% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.4% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 30.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.7% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.5% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.3% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.2% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.8% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.5% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 81.0% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 79.3% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 79.9% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.2% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.6% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 33.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 31.6% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 59.9% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.2% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 26.3% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.6% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.8% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.4% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.6% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.3% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.1% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.2% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.5% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.2% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.1% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.4% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.4% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.6% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.2% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.2% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.5% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.4% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.4% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:0009-16 12:0009-24 06:0010-01 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:0041.0%————18.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:0014.0%—————
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%————12.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:0027.0%————10.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:0040.0%—————
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:0020.8%————14.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:006.9%—————
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:007.7%————16.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:0040.5%—————
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:001.6%————14.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:004.4%—————
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:004.0%————16.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:0032.5%—————
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:006.0%————18.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:006.6%—————
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:0011.8%————22.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:0074.5%—0.1%———
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.3%————12.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:0059.2%—————
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:0075.1%—3.5%——7.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:0038.2%—2.0%———
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:0020.6%————6.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:0034.4%—————
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:0061.8%—0.4%——16.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:0056.4%—8.2%———
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:0064.0%—22.1%——22.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:0033.3%—14.0%———
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:0034.8%0.0%28.8%——28.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:0015.0%—0.1%———
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:0029.8%—0.1%0.0%—20.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:002.7%—0.0%———
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:001.5%3.6%0.3%2.8%—15.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.1%———
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:0043.2%0.5%0.1%33.0%—20.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:0076.5%—0.5%———
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:0067.0%30.1%25.5%31.6%—24.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:0047.5%—81.0%———
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:0049.2%14.8%79.3%59.9%—24.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:0061.8%0.1%79.9%———
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:0034.6%9.7%33.0%17.2%—24.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:0039.3%21.5%2.8%———
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:0028.9%5.0%3.9%16.0%—31.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:0013.7%1.5%4.0%——15.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:0018.3%3.2%14.2%26.3%—19.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:0013.5%1.3%4.7%———
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:0013.9%1.9%1.4%17.6%—10.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:009.2%2.6%1.0%———
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:0010.4%3.3%0.9%9.0%—8.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:0012.3%3.5%1.4%0.0%—8.7%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:0010.0%1.1%2.5%6.8%1.2%6.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:0011.4%1.4%2.5%7.4%——
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:0010.6%1.7%4.6%13.0%3.0%8.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:0010.3%5.3%4.9%16.6%—0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:008.9%4.3%7.9%21.0%2.0%7.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:009.8%5.4%7.1%11.1%—7.1%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:007.3%4.4%4.4%6.3%1.5%6.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:005.6%2.0%3.2%5.1%—4.1%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:003.1%0.6%2.6%1.5%1.2%1.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:006.8%1.0%1.7%1.9%—1.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single48%84.3°F4.0°F2026-09-30 18:000.2304
IFS HRES12%80.1°F3.7°F2026-09-30 12:000.0144
WeatherNext 26%79.2°F3.4°F2026-09-30 18:000.0038
IFS Ensemble5%77.8°F4.2°F2026-09-30 00:000.0029
ICON3%78.1°F3.5°F2026-09-30 12:000.0012
National Blend2%80.1°F2.2°F2026-10-01 00:000.0006
NWS forecast2%80.0°F2.2°F2026-10-01 02:000.0004

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261001-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 24 · 07:28 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗