KBOI / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 28 · 04:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.0¢Risks 1.51u

ICONNO 94.0¢Risks 23.49u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.49u · ICON −23.49u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T04:13:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T07:28:08+00:00	25.3%	9.1%	0.7%	12.8%	1.1%
2026-09-24T08:13:32+00:00	25.3%	9.1%	0.7%	12.8%	1.1%
2026-09-24T08:58:39+00:00	25.3%	9.1%	0.7%	12.8%	1.1%
2026-09-24T09:43:43+00:00	25.3%	9.1%	0.7%	12.8%	1.1%
2026-09-24T10:28:48+00:00	25.3%	9.1%	0.7%	12.8%	1.1%
2026-09-24T11:13:54+00:00	25.3%	3.3%	0.4%	12.8%	1.1%
2026-09-24T11:58:59+00:00	25.3%	3.3%	0.4%	12.8%	1.1%
2026-09-24T12:44:04+00:00	25.3%	3.3%	0.4%	12.8%	1.1%
2026-09-24T13:29:21+00:00	9.2%	3.3%	0.4%	12.8%	1.1%
2026-09-24T14:16:44+00:00	8.9%	3.4%	0.4%	12.9%	1.1%
2026-09-24T15:02:05+00:00	8.9%	3.5%	0.4%	12.9%	1.1%
2026-09-24T15:47:24+00:00	8.9%	3.4%	0.4%	12.9%	1.1%
2026-09-24T16:32:30+00:00	8.9%	3.4%	0.4%	12.9%	1.1%
2026-09-24T19:32:57+00:00	21.5%	3.4%	0.2%	12.9%	19.6%
2026-09-24T20:18:03+00:00	21.5%	3.4%	0.2%	12.9%	19.6%
2026-09-24T21:03:08+00:00	21.5%	3.4%	0.2%	12.9%	19.6%
2026-09-24T21:48:14+00:00	21.5%	3.4%	0.2%	12.9%	19.6%
2026-09-24T22:33:20+00:00	21.5%	3.4%	0.2%	9.4%	19.6%
2026-09-24T23:18:27+00:00	21.5%	3.4%	0.7%	9.4%	19.6%
2026-09-25T00:03:32+00:00	21.5%	3.4%	0.7%	9.4%	19.6%
2026-09-25T00:48:46+00:00	21.5%	3.4%	0.7%	9.4%	19.6%
2026-09-25T01:33:54+00:00	1.6%	3.4%	0.7%	9.4%	19.6%
2026-09-25T02:19:01+00:00	1.6%	3.4%	0.7%	9.4%	19.6%
2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00	34.0%	4.0%	0.1%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00	34.0%	4.0%	0.1%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00	34.0%	4.0%	0.1%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00	34.0%	4.0%	0.1%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00	34.0%	4.0%	0.1%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00	34.0%	4.0%	0.7%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00	34.0%	4.0%	0.7%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00	34.0%	4.0%	0.7%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00	65.3%	4.0%	0.7%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-26T02:26:32+00:00	65.3%	4.0%	0.7%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-26T03:11:51+00:00	65.3%	4.0%	0.7%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-26T03:56:59+00:00	65.3%	4.0%	0.7%	15.0%	1.3%
2026-09-26T04:42:12+00:00	65.3%	4.0%	0.7%	15.0%	17.8%
2026-09-26T05:27:21+00:00	65.3%	4.0%	0.8%	15.0%	17.8%
2026-09-26T06:12:27+00:00	65.3%	4.0%	0.8%	15.0%	17.8%
2026-09-26T06:57:33+00:00	65.3%	4.0%	0.8%	15.0%	17.8%
2026-09-26T07:43:21+00:00	54.0%	4.0%	0.8%	6.1%	17.8%
2026-09-26T08:28:42+00:00	54.0%	4.0%	0.8%	6.1%	17.8%
2026-09-26T09:13:49+00:00	54.0%	4.0%	0.8%	6.1%	17.8%
2026-09-26T09:58:54+00:00	54.0%	4.0%	0.8%	6.1%	17.8%
2026-09-26T10:44:07+00:00	54.0%	4.0%	0.8%	6.1%	17.8%
2026-09-26T11:29:24+00:00	54.0%	10.6%	0.8%	6.1%	17.8%
2026-09-26T12:14:32+00:00	54.0%	10.6%	0.8%	6.1%	17.8%
2026-09-26T12:59:37+00:00	54.0%	10.6%	0.8%	6.1%	17.8%
2026-09-26T13:44:48+00:00	35.8%	10.6%	0.8%	6.1%	17.8%
2026-09-26T14:32:21+00:00	35.8%	10.6%	0.8%	6.1%	17.7%
2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00	35.8%	11.3%	0.8%	6.1%	17.7%
2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00	35.8%	11.3%	0.8%	6.1%	17.7%
2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00	35.8%	11.3%	0.8%	6.1%	9.0%
2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00	35.8%	11.3%	0.8%	6.1%	9.0%
2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00	35.8%	11.3%	0.8%	6.1%	9.0%
2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00	35.8%	11.3%	0.8%	6.1%	9.0%
2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00	36.5%	11.3%	0.8%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00	36.5%	11.3%	0.8%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00	36.5%	11.3%	0.8%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00	36.5%	11.3%	0.8%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00	36.5%	11.3%	0.8%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00	36.5%	11.3%	0.3%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00	36.5%	11.3%	0.3%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00	36.5%	11.3%	0.3%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00	47.6%	11.3%	0.3%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00	47.6%	11.3%	0.3%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-27T03:20:03+00:00	47.6%	11.3%	0.3%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-27T04:05:15+00:00	47.6%	11.3%	0.3%	10.2%	9.0%
2026-09-27T04:50:23+00:00	47.6%	11.3%	0.3%	10.2%	2.2%
2026-09-27T05:35:33+00:00	47.6%	11.3%	0.9%	10.2%	2.2%
2026-09-27T06:20:40+00:00	47.6%	11.3%	0.9%	10.2%	2.2%
2026-09-27T07:05:46+00:00	47.6%	11.3%	0.9%	10.2%	2.2%
2026-09-27T07:51:31+00:00	24.5%	11.3%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T08:36:56+00:00	24.5%	11.3%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T09:22:01+00:00	24.5%	11.3%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T10:07:06+00:00	24.5%	11.3%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T10:52:12+00:00	24.5%	11.3%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T11:37:22+00:00	24.5%	7.9%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T12:22:27+00:00	24.5%	7.9%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T13:07:35+00:00	24.5%	7.9%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T13:52:48+00:00	28.0%	7.9%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T14:40:19+00:00	28.0%	7.9%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T15:25:31+00:00	28.0%	7.5%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T16:10:35+00:00	28.0%	7.5%	0.9%	12.4%	2.2%
2026-09-27T16:55:43+00:00	28.0%	7.5%	1.3%	12.4%	1.2%
2026-09-27T17:40:50+00:00	28.0%	7.5%	1.3%	12.4%	1.2%
2026-09-27T18:26:05+00:00	28.0%	7.5%	1.3%	12.4%	1.2%
2026-09-27T19:11:10+00:00	28.0%	7.5%	1.3%	12.4%	1.2%
2026-09-27T19:56:21+00:00	20.6%	7.5%	1.3%	10.9%	1.2%
2026-09-27T20:41:30+00:00	20.6%	7.5%	1.3%	10.9%	1.2%
2026-09-27T21:26:34+00:00	20.6%	7.5%	1.3%	10.9%	1.2%
2026-09-27T22:11:38+00:00	20.6%	7.5%	1.3%	10.9%	1.2%
2026-09-27T22:56:47+00:00	20.6%	7.5%	1.5%	10.9%	1.2%
2026-09-27T23:41:52+00:00	20.6%	7.5%	1.5%	10.9%	1.2%
2026-09-28T00:26:58+00:00	20.6%	7.5%	1.5%	10.9%	1.2%
2026-09-28T01:12:06+00:00	20.6%	7.5%	1.5%	10.9%	1.2%
2026-09-28T01:57:14+00:00	10.2%	7.5%	1.5%	10.9%	1.2%
2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00	10.2%	7.5%	1.5%	10.9%	1.2%
2026-09-28T03:28:06+00:00	10.2%	7.5%	1.5%	10.9%	1.2%
2026-09-28T04:13:31+00:00	10.2%	7.5%	1.5%	10.9%	1.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	11%	83.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0119
AIFS Single	10%	83.6°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.0104
IFS Ensemble	8%	79.4°F	7.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	0.0056
National Blend	7%	80.7°F	5.9°F	2026-09-27 06:00	0.0046
WeatherNext 2	2%	80.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0002
ICON	1%	78.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.0001
NWS forecast	<1%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-28 02:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261001-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 24 · 07:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Boise · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗