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KBOI / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 28 · 04:13 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
11%
AIFS
10%
EPS
8%
WN2
2%
ICON
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 6.0¢Risks 1.51u
VS
ICONNO 94.0¢Risks 23.49u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.49u · ICON −23.49u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.3% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.3% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.9% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.7% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.1% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.9% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.3% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.1% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:0009-16 12:0009-24 06:0010-01 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:0018.6%————6.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:004.0%—————
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%————3.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:0010.0%————2.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:0017.9%—————
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:006.9%————4.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:001.8%————4.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:0018.2%—————
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:000.3%————4.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:000.9%—————
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:000.8%————4.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—————
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:001.3%————5.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:003.0%————7.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:0048.3%—0.0%———
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.0%————3.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:0031.1%—————
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:0047.6%—0.5%——1.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:0014.8%—0.3%———
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:005.7%————1.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:0012.0%—————
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:0031.3%—0.0%——3.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:0026.1%—1.4%———
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:0032.4%—5.7%——5.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:0010.3%—2.8%———
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:0010.8%0.0%8.0%——7.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:002.9%—0.0%———
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:007.9%—0.0%0.0%—4.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:000.2%—0.0%———
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%0.0%0.2%—2.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:0012.9%0.0%0.0%8.1%—3.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:0040.0%—0.0%———
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:0028.8%6.4%4.9%6.9%—4.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:0013.9%—44.3%———
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:0014.3%1.8%40.9%21.3%—4.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:0022.0%0.0%40.7%———
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:006.8%0.8%6.2%2.1%—3.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:008.1%2.8%0.1%———
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:004.3%0.3%0.2%1.6%—5.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:001.1%0.0%0.2%——1.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:001.7%0.1%1.1%3.2%—1.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:000.9%0.0%0.2%———
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:000.9%0.0%0.0%1.3%—0.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%0.0%———
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%0.0%0.3%—0.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:000.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%—0.3%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.0%0.1%——
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.1%0.4%0.0%0.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.1%0.5%—0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%0.6%0.0%0.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES11%83.3°F5.0°F2026-09-27 12:000.0119
AIFS Single10%83.6°F4.6°F2026-09-27 18:000.0104
IFS Ensemble8%79.4°F7.0°F2026-09-27 00:000.0056
National Blend7%80.7°F5.9°F2026-09-27 06:000.0046
WeatherNext 22%80.9°F3.9°F2026-09-27 12:000.0002
ICON1%78.8°F4.7°F2026-09-27 12:000.0001
NWS forecast<1%80.0°F3.9°F2026-09-28 02:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261001-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 24 · 07:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Boise · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗