KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 13:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

92%

86%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 92.8¢Risks 46.40u

ICONNO 7.2¢Risks 3.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +3.60u · ICON −3.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T13:44:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T02:26:32+00:00	99.7%	84.1%	97.3%	99.0%	40.7%
2026-09-26T03:11:51+00:00	99.7%	84.1%	97.3%	99.0%	40.7%
2026-09-26T03:56:59+00:00	99.7%	84.1%	97.3%	99.0%	40.7%
2026-09-26T04:42:12+00:00	99.7%	84.1%	97.3%	99.0%	85.8%
2026-09-26T05:27:21+00:00	99.7%	84.1%	96.8%	99.0%	85.8%
2026-09-26T06:12:27+00:00	99.7%	84.1%	96.8%	99.0%	85.8%
2026-09-26T06:57:33+00:00	99.7%	84.1%	96.8%	99.0%	85.8%
2026-09-26T07:43:21+00:00	99.9%	84.1%	96.8%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-09-26T08:28:42+00:00	99.9%	84.1%	96.8%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-09-26T09:13:49+00:00	99.9%	84.1%	96.8%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-09-26T09:58:54+00:00	99.9%	84.1%	96.8%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-09-26T10:44:07+00:00	99.9%	84.1%	96.8%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-09-26T11:29:24+00:00	99.9%	92.1%	99.7%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-09-26T12:14:32+00:00	99.9%	92.1%	99.7%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-09-26T12:59:37+00:00	99.9%	92.1%	99.7%	98.5%	85.8%
2026-09-26T13:44:48+00:00	99.8%	92.1%	99.7%	98.5%	85.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	83.8°F	5.3°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	>99%	81.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	98%	83.0°F	6.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0002
IFS Ensemble	92%	79.9°F	8.1°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0062
ICON	86%	75.9°F	6.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0202
National Blend	60%	71.0°F	9.9°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.1608
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗