KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 13:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

92%

86%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 92.8¢Risks 46.40u

ICONNO 7.2¢Risks 3.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +3.60u · ICON −3.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	1.1%	—	—	74.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	74.1%	—	—	85.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	7.8%	—	—	71.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	2.7%	44.6%	—	—	79.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	13.4%	12.6%	24.6%	—	96.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	78.5%	99.1%	99.9%	—	98.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	99.4%	71.7%	99.9%	—	99.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	99.8%	100.0%	99.8%	—	99.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	98.2%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	79.2%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.5%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	99.6%	99.5%	—	100.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	99.7%	99.6%	100.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.6%	100.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	83.8°F	5.3°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	>99%	81.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	98%	83.0°F	6.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0002
IFS Ensemble	92%	79.9°F	8.1°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0062
ICON	86%	75.9°F	6.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0202
National Blend	60%	71.0°F	9.9°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.1608
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗