WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 27 · 02:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
>99%
HRES
99%
ICON
98%
WN2
98%
EPS
88%
Consensus
95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 93.8¢Risks 46.90u
VS
EPSNO 6.2¢Risks 3.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +3.10u · EPS −3.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.4% · 2026-09-26T14:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 99.4% · 2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00AIFS Single: 99.4% · 2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 99.4% · 2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00AIFS Single: 99.4% · 2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00AIFS Single: 99.4% · 2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 99.4% · 2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-09-26T14:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T14:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.0% · 2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.0% · 2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.0% · 2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.0% · 2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.0% · 2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00IFS HRES: 97.0% · 2026-09-26T14:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 97.0% · 2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00IFS HRES: 97.0% · 2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 97.0% · 2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00IFS HRES: 97.0% · 2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00IFS HRES: 97.0% · 2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 97.0% · 2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-09-26T14:32:21+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:0009-26 14:3209-26 20:3309-27 02:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-26T14:32:21+00:0099.4%87.7%99.0%97.0%78.3%
2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:0099.4%88.3%99.0%97.0%78.3%
2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:0099.4%88.3%99.0%97.0%78.3%
2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:0099.4%88.3%99.0%97.0%98.0%
2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:0099.4%88.3%99.0%97.0%98.0%
2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:0099.4%88.3%99.0%97.0%98.0%
2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:0099.4%88.3%99.0%97.0%98.0%
2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:0099.2%88.3%99.0%98.8%98.0%
2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:0099.2%88.3%99.0%98.8%98.0%
2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:0099.2%88.3%99.0%98.8%98.0%
2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:0099.2%88.3%99.0%98.8%98.0%
2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:0099.2%88.3%99.0%98.8%98.0%
2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:0099.2%88.3%98.0%98.8%98.0%
2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:0099.2%88.3%98.0%98.8%98.0%
2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:0099.2%88.3%98.0%98.8%98.0%
2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:0099.3%88.3%98.0%98.8%98.0%
2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:0099.3%88.3%98.0%98.8%98.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single>99%83.5°F5.3°F2026-09-26 18:000.0000
IFS HRES99%85.4°F6.6°F2026-09-26 12:000.0001
ICON98%84.7°F6.9°F2026-09-26 12:000.0004
WeatherNext 298%79.8°F4.5°F2026-09-26 12:000.0004
IFS Ensemble88%80.1°F8.1°F2026-09-26 00:000.0137
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.8°F2026-09-26 14:000.2172
National Blend50%70.5°F7.2°F2026-09-26 06:000.2500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 26 · 14:32 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗