KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

98%

98%

88%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 93.8¢Risks 46.90u

EPSNO 6.2¢Risks 3.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +3.10u · EPS −3.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	69.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	64.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	63.0%	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	4.0%	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	1.2%	31.8%	—	—	68.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	7.2%	6.7%	14.9%	—	92.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	66.3%	97.7%	99.6%	—	97.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	95.6%	98.3%	57.6%	99.7%	—	98.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	99.3%	99.9%	99.3%	—	99.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	95.3%	99.9%	99.5%	—	99.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	65.0%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.6%	99.4%	99.8%	—	99.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	98.4%	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.4%	98.7%	98.1%	—	99.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.8%	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.9%	99.5%	99.6%	—	99.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.0%	99.5%	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.1%	99.8%	98.8%	98.3%	100.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.7%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.5%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.5%	98.2%	100.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	99.3%	—	100.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	99.1%	100.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	100.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	100.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	83.5°F	5.3°F	2026-09-26 18:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	99%	85.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0001
ICON	98%	84.7°F	6.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0004
WeatherNext 2	98%	79.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	0.0004
IFS Ensemble	88%	80.1°F	8.1°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0137
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 14:00	0.2172
National Blend	50%	70.5°F	7.2°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.2500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 26 · 14:32 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗