KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 30 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.0¢Risks 12.00u

ICONNO 88.0¢Risks 88.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +88.00u · ICON −88.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T10:34:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00	9.8%	11.8%	0.9%	17.0%	0.9%
2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00	9.8%	11.8%	0.9%	17.0%	0.9%
2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00	9.8%	11.8%	0.9%	17.0%	0.9%
2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00	16.6%	11.8%	0.9%	17.0%	0.9%
2026-09-26T11:29:24+00:00	19.9%	11.7%	3.1%	16.4%	2.5%
2026-09-26T12:14:32+00:00	19.9%	11.7%	3.1%	16.4%	2.5%
2026-09-26T12:59:37+00:00	19.9%	11.7%	3.1%	16.4%	2.5%
2026-09-26T13:44:48+00:00	14.2%	11.7%	3.1%	16.4%	2.5%
2026-09-26T14:32:22+00:00	14.2%	11.8%	3.1%	16.4%	2.4%
2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00	14.2%	12.2%	3.1%	16.4%	2.4%
2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00	14.2%	12.2%	3.1%	16.4%	2.4%
2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00	14.2%	12.2%	3.1%	16.4%	24.3%
2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00	14.2%	12.2%	3.1%	16.4%	24.3%
2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00	14.2%	12.2%	3.1%	16.4%	24.3%
2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00	14.2%	12.2%	3.1%	16.4%	24.3%
2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00	12.6%	12.2%	3.1%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00	12.6%	12.2%	3.1%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00	12.6%	12.2%	3.1%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00	12.6%	12.2%	3.1%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00	12.6%	12.2%	3.1%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00	12.6%	12.2%	1.6%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00	12.6%	12.2%	1.6%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00	12.6%	12.2%	1.6%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00	13.0%	12.2%	1.6%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00	13.0%	12.2%	1.6%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-27T03:20:03+00:00	13.0%	12.2%	1.6%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-27T04:05:15+00:00	13.0%	12.2%	1.6%	26.8%	24.3%
2026-09-27T04:50:23+00:00	13.0%	12.2%	1.6%	26.8%	22.0%
2026-09-27T05:35:33+00:00	13.0%	12.2%	2.3%	26.8%	22.0%
2026-09-27T06:20:40+00:00	13.0%	12.2%	2.3%	26.8%	22.0%
2026-09-27T07:05:46+00:00	13.0%	12.2%	2.3%	26.8%	22.0%
2026-09-27T07:51:31+00:00	11.6%	12.2%	2.3%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T08:36:56+00:00	11.6%	12.2%	2.3%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T09:22:01+00:00	11.6%	12.2%	2.3%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T10:07:06+00:00	11.6%	12.2%	2.3%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T10:52:12+00:00	11.6%	12.2%	2.3%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T11:37:22+00:00	11.6%	17.9%	3.2%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T12:22:27+00:00	11.6%	17.9%	3.2%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T13:07:35+00:00	11.6%	17.9%	3.2%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T13:52:48+00:00	13.3%	17.9%	3.2%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T14:40:19+00:00	13.3%	17.9%	3.2%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T15:25:31+00:00	13.3%	17.5%	3.2%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T16:10:35+00:00	13.3%	17.5%	3.2%	32.1%	22.0%
2026-09-27T16:55:43+00:00	13.3%	17.5%	3.3%	32.1%	6.5%
2026-09-27T17:40:50+00:00	13.3%	17.5%	3.3%	32.1%	6.5%
2026-09-27T18:26:05+00:00	13.3%	17.5%	3.3%	32.1%	6.5%
2026-09-27T19:11:10+00:00	13.3%	17.5%	3.3%	32.1%	6.5%
2026-09-27T19:56:21+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.3%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-27T20:41:30+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.3%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-27T21:26:34+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.3%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-27T22:11:38+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.3%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-27T22:56:47+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.2%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-27T23:41:52+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.2%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-28T00:26:58+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.2%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-28T01:12:06+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.2%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-28T01:57:14+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.2%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.2%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-28T03:28:06+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.2%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-28T04:13:31+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	3.2%	47.9%	6.5%
2026-09-28T04:58:38+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	0.5%	47.9%	11.8%
2026-09-28T05:43:49+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	0.5%	47.9%	11.8%
2026-09-28T06:28:57+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	0.5%	47.9%	11.8%
2026-09-28T07:14:02+00:00	22.7%	17.5%	0.5%	47.9%	11.8%
2026-09-28T08:00:03+00:00	23.8%	17.5%	0.5%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T08:45:30+00:00	23.8%	17.5%	0.5%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T09:30:35+00:00	23.8%	17.5%	0.5%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T10:15:41+00:00	23.8%	17.5%	0.5%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T11:00:57+00:00	23.8%	13.8%	1.1%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T11:46:09+00:00	23.8%	13.8%	1.1%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T12:31:15+00:00	23.8%	13.8%	1.1%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T13:16:23+00:00	23.8%	13.8%	1.1%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T14:01:31+00:00	17.7%	13.8%	1.1%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T14:48:53+00:00	17.7%	13.8%	1.1%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T15:34:05+00:00	17.7%	12.5%	1.1%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T16:19:11+00:00	17.7%	12.5%	1.1%	22.5%	11.8%
2026-09-28T17:04:18+00:00	17.7%	12.5%	0.9%	22.1%	7.5%
2026-09-28T17:49:25+00:00	17.7%	12.5%	0.9%	22.1%	7.5%
2026-09-28T18:34:30+00:00	17.7%	12.5%	0.9%	22.1%	7.5%
2026-09-28T19:19:36+00:00	17.7%	12.5%	0.9%	22.1%	7.5%
2026-09-28T20:04:47+00:00	18.2%	12.5%	0.9%	12.4%	7.5%
2026-09-28T20:49:52+00:00	18.2%	12.5%	0.9%	12.4%	7.5%
2026-09-28T21:34:56+00:00	18.2%	12.5%	0.9%	12.4%	7.5%
2026-09-28T22:20:00+00:00	18.2%	12.5%	0.9%	12.4%	7.5%
2026-09-28T23:05:06+00:00	18.2%	12.5%	1.1%	12.9%	7.5%
2026-09-28T23:50:13+00:00	18.2%	12.5%	1.1%	12.9%	7.5%
2026-09-29T00:35:20+00:00	18.2%	12.5%	1.1%	12.9%	7.5%
2026-09-29T01:20:30+00:00	18.2%	12.5%	1.1%	12.9%	7.5%
2026-09-29T02:05:56+00:00	17.1%	12.5%	1.1%	12.9%	7.5%
2026-09-29T02:51:03+00:00	17.1%	12.5%	1.1%	12.9%	7.5%
2026-09-29T03:36:08+00:00	17.1%	12.5%	1.1%	12.9%	7.5%
2026-09-29T04:21:42+00:00	17.1%	12.5%	1.1%	12.9%	6.2%
2026-09-29T05:06:58+00:00	17.1%	12.5%	1.0%	12.9%	6.2%
2026-09-29T05:52:06+00:00	17.1%	12.5%	1.0%	12.9%	6.2%
2026-09-29T06:37:12+00:00	17.1%	12.5%	1.0%	12.9%	6.2%
2026-09-29T07:22:50+00:00	15.1%	12.5%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T08:08:26+00:00	15.1%	12.5%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T08:53:34+00:00	15.1%	12.5%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T09:38:39+00:00	15.1%	12.5%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T10:23:44+00:00	15.1%	12.5%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T11:09:01+00:00	15.1%	4.9%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T11:54:08+00:00	15.1%	4.9%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T12:39:13+00:00	15.1%	4.9%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T13:24:18+00:00	12.6%	4.9%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T14:11:43+00:00	12.5%	4.9%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T14:57:02+00:00	12.5%	4.4%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T15:42:27+00:00	12.5%	4.3%	1.0%	8.8%	6.2%
2026-09-29T16:27:45+00:00	12.5%	4.3%	1.0%	8.8%	0.9%
2026-09-30T01:29:55+00:00	20.4%	4.3%	1.2%	8.4%	0.9%
2026-09-30T02:15:02+00:00	20.4%	4.3%	1.2%	8.4%	0.9%
2026-09-30T03:00:16+00:00	20.4%	4.3%	1.2%	8.4%	0.9%
2026-09-30T03:45:25+00:00	20.4%	4.3%	1.2%	8.4%	0.9%
2026-09-30T04:31:03+00:00	20.4%	4.3%	1.2%	8.4%	1.2%
2026-09-30T10:34:53+00:00	22.8%	4.3%	1.4%	13.2%	1.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	23%	86.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.0520
IFS HRES	13%	84.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.0174
IFS Ensemble	4%	80.3°F	5.4°F	2026-09-29 00:00	0.0018
National Blend	2%	82.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.0004
NWS forecast	1%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 04:00	0.0002
WeatherNext 2	1%	81.4°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 18:00	0.0002
ICON	1%	81.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 25 · 23:25 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Boise · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗