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KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 30 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
23%
HRES
13%
EPS
4%
WN2
1%
ICON
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 12.0¢Risks 12.00u
VS
ICONNO 88.0¢Risks 88.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +88.00u · ICON −88.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.6% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.8% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.7% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.9% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.4% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.3% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.3% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.5% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.5% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.3% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.4% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.7% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.4% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.9% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:0009-17 12:0009-25 06:0010-02 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:0020.1%————4.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:0047.3%—————
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:0014.9%————3.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%————3.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:001.3%—————
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%————5.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:001.5%————4.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:008.3%—————
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:002.9%————0.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:003.8%—————
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:006.4%————3.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.0%————2.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:0011.6%—————
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:004.0%————0.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:001.4%————0.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:003.4%—0.0%——0.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:006.6%—————
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:001.4%————0.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:000.8%—0.0%———
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:0017.2%—0.4%——1.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:001.6%—0.0%———
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:002.7%—0.0%——0.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:002.5%—0.0%———
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.0%——0.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:002.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%—2.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:004.7%—0.0%———
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:006.2%0.1%6.9%19.9%—5.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:003.6%—0.0%———
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:002.7%6.5%0.0%17.4%—6.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:002.5%—0.5%———
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:002.4%9.0%23.6%9.3%—13.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:002.9%—21.8%———
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:006.1%1.1%20.1%8.3%—18.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:005.9%0.0%16.7%———
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:006.5%6.2%4.7%10.5%—9.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:003.8%1.6%2.4%———
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:003.4%2.9%1.5%1.0%—9.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:002.9%4.8%3.4%———
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:002.4%5.6%1.9%2.5%—5.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:001.6%0.7%1.4%——0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:001.9%0.6%2.4%0.4%0.3%5.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:002.8%1.0%2.5%———
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:003.8%2.0%1.7%0.4%0.0%10.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:001.8%0.5%1.6%———
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:002.2%0.9%2.4%0.2%0.0%7.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:001.3%0.2%1.7%0.1%—3.5%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:000.8%0.4%1.8%0.1%0.0%2.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:000.7%0.9%1.5%0.3%—3.2%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:000.4%0.3%1.1%0.1%0.0%1.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:000.5%0.1%0.7%0.1%—0.8%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.3%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:000.3%0.1%0.7%0.1%—0.3%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single23%86.4°F4.2°F2026-09-30 00:000.0520
IFS HRES13%84.9°F4.1°F2026-09-30 00:000.0174
IFS Ensemble4%80.3°F5.4°F2026-09-29 00:000.0018
National Blend2%82.9°F3.2°F2026-09-30 00:000.0004
NWS forecast1%82.0°F3.4°F2026-09-30 04:000.0002
WeatherNext 21%81.4°F3.7°F2026-09-29 18:000.0002
ICON1%81.6°F3.5°F2026-09-30 00:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 25 · 23:25 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Boise · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗