KBOI / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

66%

64%

57%

15%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

EPSNO 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.60u · EPS −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T07:39:20+00:00	18.6%	12.2%	34.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-10-08T08:24:46+00:00	18.6%	12.2%	34.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-10-08T09:09:52+00:00	18.6%	12.2%	34.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-10-08T09:54:59+00:00	18.6%	12.2%	34.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-10-08T10:40:07+00:00	18.6%	12.2%	34.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-10-08T11:25:34+00:00	18.6%	26.2%	58.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-10-08T12:10:46+00:00	18.6%	26.2%	58.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-10-08T12:55:53+00:00	18.6%	26.2%	58.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-10-08T13:41:20+00:00	50.9%	26.2%	58.6%	77.0%	52.5%
2026-10-08T14:30:46+00:00	50.9%	26.3%	58.6%	77.0%	51.7%
2026-10-08T15:16:22+00:00	50.9%	26.2%	58.6%	77.0%	51.7%
2026-10-08T16:01:36+00:00	50.9%	26.2%	58.6%	77.0%	51.7%
2026-10-08T16:46:42+00:00	50.9%	26.2%	58.6%	77.0%	51.7%
2026-10-08T17:31:47+00:00	50.9%	26.2%	58.6%	77.0%	51.7%
2026-10-08T18:16:53+00:00	50.9%	26.2%	58.6%	77.0%	51.7%
2026-10-08T19:01:57+00:00	50.9%	26.2%	58.6%	77.0%	51.7%
2026-10-08T19:47:08+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	58.6%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-08T20:32:15+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	58.6%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-08T21:17:27+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	58.6%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-08T22:02:34+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	58.6%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-08T22:47:39+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	58.6%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-08T23:32:53+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	73.3%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-09T00:17:59+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	73.3%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-09T01:03:10+00:00	62.0%	26.2%	73.3%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-09T01:48:29+00:00	42.2%	26.2%	73.3%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-09T02:33:37+00:00	42.2%	26.2%	73.3%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-09T03:19:49+00:00	42.2%	26.2%	73.3%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-09T04:05:10+00:00	42.2%	26.2%	73.3%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-09T04:50:16+00:00	42.2%	26.2%	73.3%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-09T05:35:23+00:00	42.2%	26.2%	72.4%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-09T06:20:30+00:00	42.2%	26.2%	72.4%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-09T07:05:35+00:00	42.2%	26.2%	72.4%	49.2%	58.3%
2026-10-09T07:51:45+00:00	54.6%	26.2%	72.4%	73.4%	96.2%
2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00	54.6%	26.2%	72.4%	73.4%	96.2%
2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00	54.6%	26.2%	72.4%	73.4%	96.2%
2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00	54.6%	26.2%	72.4%	73.4%	96.2%
2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00	54.6%	26.2%	72.4%	73.4%	96.2%
2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00	54.6%	26.2%	72.4%	73.4%	96.2%
2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:00	54.6%	31.3%	72.4%	73.4%	96.2%
2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00	54.6%	31.3%	72.4%	73.4%	96.2%
2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00	51.9%	31.3%	72.4%	73.4%	96.0%
2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:00	51.9%	31.3%	72.4%	73.4%	96.0%
2026-10-09T15:28:00+00:00	51.9%	31.3%	72.4%	73.4%	96.0%
2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:00	51.9%	31.3%	72.4%	73.4%	96.0%
2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:00	51.9%	31.3%	62.8%	73.4%	96.0%
2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00	51.9%	31.3%	62.8%	73.4%	96.0%
2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:00	51.9%	31.3%	62.8%	73.4%	96.0%
2026-10-09T19:13:46+00:00	51.9%	31.3%	62.8%	73.4%	96.0%
2026-10-09T19:58:58+00:00	61.0%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00	61.0%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00	61.0%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00	61.0%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00	61.0%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00	61.0%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00	61.0%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00	61.0%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00	55.5%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00	55.5%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00	55.5%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00	55.5%	31.3%	62.8%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00	55.5%	31.3%	60.6%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00	55.5%	31.3%	60.6%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00	55.5%	31.3%	60.6%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00	55.5%	31.3%	60.6%	74.9%	68.5%
2026-10-10T08:03:37+00:00	58.7%	31.3%	60.6%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T08:48:42+00:00	58.7%	31.3%	60.6%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T09:33:47+00:00	58.7%	31.3%	60.6%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T10:19:01+00:00	58.7%	31.3%	60.6%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T11:04:11+00:00	58.7%	25.0%	60.6%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T11:49:17+00:00	58.7%	25.0%	60.6%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T12:34:22+00:00	58.7%	25.0%	60.6%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T13:19:28+00:00	58.7%	25.0%	60.6%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T14:05:00+00:00	57.7%	25.1%	61.7%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T14:54:10+00:00	57.7%	24.4%	61.7%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00	57.7%	24.3%	61.7%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00	57.7%	24.3%	61.7%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00	57.7%	24.3%	55.1%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T17:55:11+00:00	57.7%	24.3%	55.1%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:00	57.7%	24.3%	55.1%	74.9%	85.7%
2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:00	65.1%	24.3%	55.1%	74.9%	76.7%
2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:00	65.1%	24.3%	55.1%	74.9%	76.7%
2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00	65.1%	24.3%	55.1%	74.9%	76.7%
2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:00	65.1%	24.3%	55.1%	74.9%	76.7%
2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00	65.1%	24.3%	55.1%	64.6%	76.7%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	65.2%	24.3%	66.3%	64.3%	76.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00	65.2%	24.3%	66.3%	64.3%	76.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	65.2%	24.3%	66.3%	64.3%	76.8%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	67.0%	24.3%	66.3%	64.3%	76.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	67.0%	24.3%	66.3%	64.3%	76.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	67.0%	24.3%	66.3%	64.3%	76.8%
2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00	67.0%	24.3%	66.3%	64.3%	76.8%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	67.0%	24.3%	66.3%	64.3%	76.8%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	67.0%	24.3%	63.9%	64.3%	76.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	67.0%	24.3%	63.9%	64.3%	76.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	67.0%	24.3%	63.9%	64.3%	76.8%
2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00	60.9%	24.3%	63.9%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	60.9%	24.3%	63.9%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	60.9%	24.3%	63.9%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	60.9%	24.3%	63.9%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00	60.9%	24.3%	63.9%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	60.9%	15.2%	62.1%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	60.9%	15.2%	62.1%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	60.9%	15.2%	62.1%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	57.0%	15.2%	62.1%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	57.0%	15.4%	62.1%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00	57.0%	15.2%	62.1%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	57.0%	15.2%	62.1%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	57.0%	15.2%	62.1%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	57.0%	15.2%	44.6%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	57.0%	15.2%	44.6%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	57.0%	15.2%	44.6%	80.5%	76.8%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	68.3%	15.2%	44.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	68.3%	15.2%	44.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	68.3%	15.2%	44.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	68.3%	15.2%	44.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	68.3%	15.2%	44.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	68.3%	15.2%	64.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	68.3%	15.2%	64.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	68.3%	15.2%	64.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	63.7%	15.2%	64.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	63.7%	15.2%	64.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	63.7%	15.2%	64.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-12T04:01:55+00:00	63.7%	15.2%	64.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	63.7%	15.2%	64.6%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	63.7%	15.2%	56.8%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	63.7%	15.2%	56.8%	65.6%	95.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	63.7%	15.2%	56.8%	65.6%	95.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	49.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0019
IFS HRES	66%	54.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1183
AIFS Single	64%	54.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1318
NWS forecast	59%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	57%	55.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1866
National Blend	56%	55.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1945
IFS Ensemble	15%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.7191

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261012-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 08 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Boise stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗