KBOI / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

66%

64%

57%

15%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

EPSNO 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.60u · EPS −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	19.3%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	29.6%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	42.9%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	98.9%	96.2%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	49.3%	63.8%	14.5%	—	27.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	74.6%	93.1%	0.1%	—	39.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	83.5%	—	56.1%	—	17.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	96.2%	47.6%	10.4%	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	98.8%	89.9%	35.3%	—	27.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	97.0%	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	65.4%	16.1%	19.0%	—	44.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	59.8%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	72.6%	28.2%	72.6%	—	51.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	91.6%	24.6%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	96.8%	12.6%	81.7%	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	81.0%	34.4%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	74.9%	15.7%	56.1%	—	78.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	93.5%	19.8%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	83.1%	42.4%	45.6%	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	89.8%	37.8%	99.6%	—	71.4%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	74.9%	52.3%	55.8%	—	74.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	66.4%	47.6%	56.0%	—	68.5%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	73.4%	47.5%	63.4%	95.4%	75.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	82.6%	55.1%	48.7%	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	94.7%	44.6%	76.0%	69.3%	71.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	79.9%	59.7%	58.3%	—	66.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	87.0%	68.2%	69.5%	83.7%	64.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	80.8%	75.2%	75.2%	—	64.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	82.9%	71.0%	83.9%	85.8%	66.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	85.9%	67.6%	85.0%	—	77.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	49.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0019
IFS HRES	66%	54.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1183
AIFS Single	64%	54.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1318
NWS forecast	59%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	57%	55.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1866
National Blend	56%	55.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1945
IFS Ensemble	15%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.7191

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261012-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 08 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Boise stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗