KBOI / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

54%

42%

33%

10%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.5¢Risks 41.55u

ICONNO 58.5¢Risks 58.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.45u · ICON −58.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T03:07:15+00:00	85.1%	44.4%	64.7%	56.6%	28.6%
2026-10-08T03:52:35+00:00	85.1%	44.4%	64.7%	56.6%	28.6%
2026-10-08T04:37:42+00:00	85.1%	44.4%	64.7%	56.6%	28.6%
2026-10-08T05:22:51+00:00	85.1%	44.4%	63.8%	56.6%	28.6%
2026-10-08T06:08:00+00:00	85.1%	44.4%	63.8%	56.6%	28.6%
2026-10-08T06:53:05+00:00	85.1%	44.4%	63.8%	56.6%	28.6%
2026-10-08T07:39:20+00:00	79.3%	44.4%	63.8%	35.8%	67.2%
2026-10-08T08:24:46+00:00	79.3%	44.4%	63.8%	35.8%	67.2%
2026-10-08T09:09:52+00:00	79.3%	44.4%	63.8%	35.8%	67.2%
2026-10-08T09:54:59+00:00	79.3%	44.4%	63.8%	35.8%	67.2%
2026-10-08T10:40:07+00:00	79.3%	44.4%	63.8%	35.8%	67.2%
2026-10-08T11:25:34+00:00	79.3%	57.1%	28.5%	35.8%	67.2%
2026-10-08T12:10:46+00:00	79.3%	57.1%	28.5%	35.8%	67.2%
2026-10-08T12:55:53+00:00	79.3%	57.1%	28.5%	35.8%	67.2%
2026-10-08T13:41:20+00:00	51.6%	57.1%	28.5%	35.8%	67.2%
2026-10-08T14:30:46+00:00	51.6%	57.0%	28.4%	35.8%	67.2%
2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00	59.5%	47.8%	23.2%	54.8%	23.8%
2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00	59.5%	47.8%	32.3%	54.8%	23.8%
2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00	59.5%	47.8%	32.3%	54.8%	23.8%
2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00	59.5%	47.8%	32.3%	54.8%	23.8%
2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00	59.5%	47.8%	32.3%	54.8%	23.8%
2026-10-10T08:03:37+00:00	70.3%	47.8%	32.3%	54.8%	40.0%
2026-10-10T08:48:42+00:00	70.3%	47.8%	32.3%	54.8%	40.0%
2026-10-10T09:33:47+00:00	70.3%	47.8%	32.3%	54.8%	40.0%
2026-10-10T10:19:01+00:00	70.3%	47.8%	32.3%	54.8%	40.0%
2026-10-10T11:04:11+00:00	70.3%	54.1%	32.3%	54.8%	40.0%
2026-10-10T11:49:17+00:00	70.3%	54.1%	32.3%	54.8%	40.0%
2026-10-10T12:34:22+00:00	70.3%	54.1%	32.3%	54.8%	40.0%
2026-10-10T13:19:28+00:00	70.3%	54.1%	32.3%	54.8%	40.0%
2026-10-10T14:05:00+00:00	67.0%	54.1%	32.3%	54.8%	40.0%
2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00	72.7%	54.9%	41.8%	58.9%	36.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	72.7%	54.9%	41.8%	58.9%	36.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	72.7%	54.9%	39.5%	58.9%	36.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	72.7%	54.9%	39.5%	58.9%	36.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	72.7%	54.9%	39.5%	58.9%	36.2%
2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00	88.4%	54.9%	39.5%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	88.4%	54.9%	39.5%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	88.4%	54.9%	39.5%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	88.4%	54.9%	39.5%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00	88.4%	54.9%	39.5%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	88.4%	61.5%	67.4%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	88.4%	61.5%	67.4%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	88.4%	61.5%	67.4%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	85.3%	61.5%	67.4%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	85.3%	61.4%	67.4%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T15:12:06+00:00	85.3%	61.5%	67.4%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	85.3%	61.5%	67.4%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	85.3%	61.5%	67.4%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	85.3%	61.5%	60.2%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	85.3%	61.5%	60.2%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	85.3%	61.5%	60.2%	63.4%	36.2%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	77.5%	61.5%	60.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	77.5%	61.5%	60.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	77.5%	61.5%	60.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	77.5%	61.5%	60.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	77.5%	61.5%	60.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	77.5%	61.5%	46.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	77.5%	61.5%	46.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	77.5%	61.5%	46.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	72.9%	61.5%	46.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	72.9%	61.5%	46.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	72.9%	61.5%	46.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:55+00:00	72.9%	61.5%	46.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	72.9%	61.5%	46.2%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	72.9%	61.5%	51.3%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	72.9%	61.5%	51.3%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	72.9%	61.5%	51.3%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00	78.9%	61.5%	51.3%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	78.9%	61.5%	51.3%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	78.9%	61.5%	51.3%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	78.9%	61.5%	51.3%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	78.9%	61.5%	51.3%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	78.9%	61.5%	56.8%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	78.9%	50.0%	56.8%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	78.9%	50.0%	56.8%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	74.3%	50.0%	56.8%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	74.3%	50.0%	56.8%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T15:27:44+00:00	74.3%	50.0%	56.8%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	56.8%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	47.3%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	47.3%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	47.3%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	47.3%	34.4%	11.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	47.3%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	47.3%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	47.3%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	47.3%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	44.6%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	44.6%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	44.6%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	74.3%	42.0%	44.6%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	73.5%	42.0%	44.6%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	73.5%	42.0%	44.6%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	73.5%	42.0%	44.6%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-13T04:16:20+00:00	73.5%	42.0%	44.6%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	73.5%	42.0%	54.1%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	73.5%	42.0%	54.1%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	73.5%	42.0%	54.1%	33.4%	9.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	73.5%	42.0%	54.1%	33.4%	9.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	64.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.5402
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	54%	61.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.2927
National Blend	44%	61.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1945
IFS Ensemble	42%	60.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1764
IFS HRES	33%	59.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1116
ICON	10%	56.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0092

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261013-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 08 · 03:07 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗