KBOI / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

54%

42%

33%

10%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.5¢Risks 41.55u

ICONNO 58.5¢Risks 58.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.45u · ICON −58.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	99.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	100.0%	—	—	98.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	98.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	1.8%	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	3.1%	—	—	88.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	1.3%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	15.6%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	4.8%	40.0%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	9.9%	—	0.0%	—	70.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	10.9%	94.9%	88.7%	—	54.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	73.6%	8.1%	71.1%	82.6%	—	62.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	50.8%	88.5%	83.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	19.5%	63.9%	16.8%	—	33.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	0.6%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	26.2%	86.4%	22.8%	—	37.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	43.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	12.4%	80.4%	73.4%	—	41.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	32.6%	74.7%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	33.9%	79.0%	80.3%	—	51.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	45.0%	66.5%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	29.4%	39.8%	74.1%	—	61.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	36.5%	46.8%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	57.6%	43.5%	88.6%	0.0%	64.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	44.4%	43.3%	0.0%	—	63.3%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	27.0%	38.5%	71.0%	20.7%	44.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	16.7%	25.3%	59.5%	—	35.9%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	17.4%	25.6%	71.3%	0.0%	46.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	19.1%	23.8%	65.1%	—	38.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	12.7%	24.0%	55.4%	9.5%	39.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	19.1%	32.5%	56.9%	—	35.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	13.0%	22.2%	57.2%	8.9%	28.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	8.6%	16.2%	50.0%	—	23.6%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	7.1%	20.3%	43.7%	6.1%	21.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	13.2%	18.1%	38.6%	—	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	64.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.5402
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	54%	61.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.2927
National Blend	44%	61.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1945
IFS Ensemble	42%	60.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1764
IFS HRES	33%	59.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1116
ICON	10%	56.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0092

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261013-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 08 · 03:07 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗