KBOI / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

41%

39%

21%

20%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

ICONNO 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.50u · ICON −62.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T20:02:08+00:00	82.4%	37.6%	63.5%	34.1%	30.0%
2026-10-06T20:47:32+00:00	82.4%	37.6%	63.5%	34.1%	30.0%
2026-10-06T21:32:42+00:00	82.4%	37.6%	63.5%	34.1%	30.0%
2026-10-06T22:17:50+00:00	82.4%	37.6%	63.5%	34.1%	30.0%
2026-10-06T23:03:08+00:00	82.4%	37.6%	51.6%	34.1%	30.0%
2026-10-06T23:48:45+00:00	82.4%	37.6%	51.6%	34.1%	30.0%
2026-10-07T00:33:52+00:00	82.4%	37.6%	51.6%	34.1%	30.0%
2026-10-07T01:19:20+00:00	82.4%	37.6%	51.6%	34.1%	30.0%
2026-10-07T02:04:31+00:00	86.7%	37.6%	51.6%	34.1%	30.0%
2026-10-07T02:49:39+00:00	86.7%	37.6%	51.6%	34.1%	30.0%
2026-10-07T03:34:46+00:00	86.7%	37.6%	51.6%	34.1%	30.0%
2026-10-07T16:33:37+00:00	66.2%	34.6%	50.0%	40.4%	22.1%
2026-10-07T17:18:50+00:00	66.2%	34.6%	32.9%	40.4%	22.1%
2026-10-07T18:03:57+00:00	66.2%	34.6%	32.9%	40.4%	22.1%
2026-10-07T18:49:03+00:00	66.2%	34.6%	32.9%	40.4%	22.1%
2026-10-07T19:34:15+00:00	81.8%	34.6%	32.9%	44.6%	19.6%
2026-10-07T20:19:23+00:00	81.8%	34.6%	32.9%	44.6%	19.6%
2026-10-07T21:04:56+00:00	81.8%	34.6%	32.9%	44.6%	19.6%
2026-10-07T21:50:04+00:00	81.8%	34.6%	32.9%	44.6%	19.6%
2026-10-07T22:35:11+00:00	81.8%	34.6%	32.9%	44.6%	19.6%
2026-10-07T23:20:25+00:00	81.8%	34.6%	47.4%	44.6%	19.6%
2026-10-08T00:05:33+00:00	81.8%	34.6%	47.4%	44.6%	19.6%
2026-10-08T00:50:56+00:00	81.8%	34.6%	47.4%	44.6%	19.6%
2026-10-08T01:36:05+00:00	74.6%	34.6%	47.4%	44.6%	19.6%
2026-10-08T02:21:13+00:00	74.6%	34.6%	47.4%	44.6%	19.6%
2026-10-08T15:16:22+00:00	35.6%	46.2%	14.3%	23.9%	54.1%
2026-10-08T16:01:36+00:00	35.6%	46.2%	14.3%	23.9%	54.1%
2026-10-08T16:46:42+00:00	35.6%	46.2%	14.3%	23.6%	54.1%
2026-10-08T17:31:47+00:00	35.6%	46.2%	14.3%	23.6%	54.1%
2026-10-08T18:16:53+00:00	35.6%	46.2%	14.3%	23.6%	54.1%
2026-10-08T19:01:57+00:00	35.6%	46.2%	14.3%	23.6%	54.1%
2026-10-08T19:47:08+00:00	47.6%	46.2%	14.3%	16.3%	26.8%
2026-10-08T20:32:15+00:00	47.6%	46.2%	14.3%	16.3%	26.8%
2026-10-08T21:17:27+00:00	47.6%	46.2%	14.3%	16.3%	26.8%
2026-10-08T22:02:34+00:00	47.6%	46.2%	14.3%	16.3%	26.8%
2026-10-08T22:47:39+00:00	47.6%	46.2%	14.3%	16.3%	26.8%
2026-10-08T23:32:53+00:00	47.6%	46.2%	13.2%	16.6%	26.8%
2026-10-09T00:17:59+00:00	47.6%	46.2%	13.2%	16.6%	26.8%
2026-10-09T01:03:10+00:00	47.6%	46.2%	13.2%	16.6%	26.8%
2026-10-09T01:48:29+00:00	50.8%	46.2%	13.2%	16.6%	26.8%
2026-10-09T02:33:37+00:00	50.8%	46.2%	13.2%	16.6%	26.8%
2026-10-09T03:19:49+00:00	50.8%	46.2%	13.2%	16.6%	26.8%
2026-10-09T04:05:10+00:00	50.8%	46.2%	13.2%	16.6%	26.8%
2026-10-09T04:50:16+00:00	50.8%	46.2%	13.2%	16.6%	26.8%
2026-10-09T05:35:23+00:00	50.8%	46.2%	12.7%	16.6%	26.8%
2026-10-09T06:20:30+00:00	50.8%	46.2%	12.7%	16.6%	26.8%
2026-10-09T07:05:35+00:00	50.8%	46.2%	12.7%	16.6%	26.8%
2026-10-09T07:51:46+00:00	31.6%	46.2%	12.7%	9.0%	24.5%
2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00	31.6%	46.2%	12.7%	9.0%	24.5%
2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00	31.6%	46.2%	12.7%	9.0%	24.5%
2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00	31.6%	46.2%	12.7%	9.0%	24.5%
2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00	31.6%	46.2%	12.7%	9.0%	24.5%
2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00	31.6%	46.2%	12.7%	9.0%	24.5%
2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:00	31.6%	33.6%	12.7%	9.0%	24.5%
2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00	31.6%	33.6%	12.7%	9.0%	24.5%
2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00	30.1%	33.6%	12.7%	9.0%	24.5%
2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:00	30.1%	33.6%	12.7%	9.0%	24.5%
2026-10-10T14:54:10+00:00	49.1%	38.7%	15.9%	39.0%	22.4%
2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00	49.1%	38.7%	15.9%	39.0%	22.4%
2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00	49.1%	38.7%	15.9%	39.0%	22.4%
2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00	49.1%	38.7%	28.6%	39.0%	22.4%
2026-10-10T17:55:11+00:00	49.1%	38.7%	28.6%	39.0%	22.4%
2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:00	49.1%	38.7%	28.6%	39.0%	22.4%
2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:00	67.0%	38.7%	28.6%	39.0%	19.5%
2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:00	67.0%	38.7%	28.6%	39.0%	19.5%
2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00	67.0%	38.7%	28.6%	39.0%	19.5%
2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:00	67.0%	38.7%	28.6%	39.0%	19.5%
2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00	67.0%	38.7%	28.6%	41.1%	19.5%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	67.0%	38.7%	21.2%	41.1%	19.5%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00	67.0%	38.7%	21.2%	41.1%	19.5%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	67.0%	38.7%	21.2%	41.1%	19.5%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	55.5%	38.7%	21.2%	41.1%	19.5%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	55.5%	38.7%	21.2%	41.1%	19.5%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	55.5%	38.7%	21.2%	41.1%	19.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	56%	64.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.3080
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-10 14:00	0.3036
IFS HRES	41%	62.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.1689
IFS Ensemble	39%	62.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.1498
National Blend	22%	61.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.0480
WeatherNext 2	21%	60.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0449
ICON	20%	60.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0380

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261013-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 06 · 20:02 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗