KBOI / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

41%

39%

21%

20%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

ICONNO 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.50u · ICON −62.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	98.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	99.9%	—	—	96.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	96.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	0.9%	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	1.5%	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	9.0%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	2.3%	27.7%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	5.1%	—	0.0%	—	57.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	5.5%	89.7%	80.1%	—	39.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	3.8%	56.8%	71.1%	—	46.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	35.2%	78.8%	71.2%	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	10.1%	47.5%	8.3%	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	0.2%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	14.1%	74.5%	11.8%	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	27.1%	21.5%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	5.3%	65.3%	56.4%	—	25.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	17.7%	57.5%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	18.3%	62.4%	64.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	26.5%	47.0%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	14.5%	21.9%	55.1%	—	40.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	19.0%	27.1%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	36.1%	23.8%	74.5%	0.0%	43.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	24.0%	23.1%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	11.6%	19.1%	48.8%	8.1%	23.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	5.8%	10.2%	35.9%	—	16.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	5.9%	10.0%	47.5%	0.0%	23.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	6.4%	8.7%	39.8%	—	17.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	3.5%	8.4%	29.5%	2.4%	17.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	5.8%	12.4%	30.0%	—	13.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	3.2%	6.8%	29.3%	1.9%	9.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	1.7%	4.1%	22.4%	—	7.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	1.2%	5.2%	17.1%	1.0%	5.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	2.6%	4.1%	13.2%	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	56%	64.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.3080
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-10 14:00	0.3036
IFS HRES	41%	62.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.1689
IFS Ensemble	39%	62.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.1498
National Blend	22%	61.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.0480
WeatherNext 2	21%	60.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0449
ICON	20%	60.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0380

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261013-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 06 · 20:02 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗