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KBOI / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
13%
HRES
12%
AIFS
8%
EPS
<1%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 6.7¢Risks 3.33u
VS
ICONNO 93.3¢Risks 46.67u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.67u · ICON −46.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.6% · 2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.1% · 2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.1% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.1% · 2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.1% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.1% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.1% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.1% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.1% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00IFS HRES: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00IFS HRES: 12.1% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00IFS HRES: 12.1% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 12.1% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS HRES: 12.1% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 12.1% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:0010-10 22:2710-11 04:3010-11 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:0013.6%0.9%8.6%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:0013.6%0.9%10.7%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:0013.6%0.9%10.7%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:0013.6%0.9%10.7%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:0016.5%0.9%10.7%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:0016.5%0.9%10.7%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:0016.5%0.9%10.7%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:0016.5%0.9%10.7%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:0016.5%0.9%10.7%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:0016.5%0.9%13.1%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:0016.5%0.9%13.1%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:0016.5%0.9%13.1%14.0%0.2%
2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:007.6%0.9%13.1%12.1%0.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:007.6%0.9%13.1%12.1%0.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:007.6%0.9%13.1%12.1%0.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:007.6%0.9%13.1%12.1%0.2%
2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:007.6%0.9%13.1%12.1%0.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend19%36.0°F4.0°F2026-10-11 00:000.0365
WeatherNext 213%37.1°F4.1°F2026-10-10 18:000.0172
IFS HRES12%37.3°F4.1°F2026-10-11 00:000.0146
NWS forecast11%37.0°F3.7°F2026-10-11 02:000.0125
AIFS Single8%37.8°F3.7°F2026-10-11 00:000.0058
IFS Ensemble<1%38.9°F2.7°F2026-10-10 00:000.0001
ICON<1%44.4°F4.1°F2026-10-10 12:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261013-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Boise freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗