KBOI / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

12%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 6.7¢Risks 3.33u

ICONNO 93.3¢Risks 46.67u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.67u · ICON −46.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	10.3%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	1.3%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	4.0%	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	20.2%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	14.8%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	0.4%	3.6%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	1.0%	—	43.0%	—	5.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	7.9%	0.2%	0.3%	—	4.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	3.8%	0.5%	4.8%	—	2.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	1.0%	0.5%	0.5%	—	4.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	2.1%	1.8%	0.2%	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	7.5%	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	1.4%	0.1%	46.5%	—	10.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	0.9%	0.9%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	16.6%	0.2%	1.1%	—	6.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	1.1%	0.4%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	1.7%	0.1%	1.4%	—	5.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	0.7%	1.4%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	0.1%	4.4%	1.9%	—	3.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	0.7%	5.8%	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.4%	6.6%	1.1%	63.9%	3.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	0.3%	7.9%	0.3%	—	3.3%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	1.1%	7.2%	0.7%	79.3%	4.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	2.5%	9.2%	0.5%	—	5.1%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	1.3%	8.9%	0.9%	52.5%	4.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	1.5%	8.2%	0.5%	—	3.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.3%	7.0%	0.1%	48.7%	3.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	1.8%	4.0%	0.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.7%	5.9%	0.1%	73.2%	1.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	8.0%	0.3%	—	2.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.7%	7.1%	1.1%	53.2%	2.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	19%	36.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0365
WeatherNext 2	13%	37.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0172
IFS HRES	12%	37.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0146
NWS forecast	11%	37.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.0125
AIFS Single	8%	37.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0058
IFS Ensemble	<1%	38.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.0001
ICON	<1%	44.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261013-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Boise freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗