KBOI / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

65%

40%

34%

14%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

ICONNO 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.20u · ICON −44.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T11:10:50+00:00	10.8%	45.3%	43.6%	9.1%	6.6%
2026-10-07T11:56:03+00:00	10.8%	45.3%	43.6%	9.1%	6.6%
2026-10-07T12:41:09+00:00	10.8%	45.3%	43.6%	9.1%	6.6%
2026-10-07T13:26:19+00:00	3.7%	45.3%	43.6%	9.1%	6.6%
2026-10-07T14:17:36+00:00	3.7%	45.3%	43.6%	9.1%	6.7%
2026-10-07T15:02:43+00:00	3.7%	44.1%	43.6%	9.1%	6.7%
2026-10-07T15:47:50+00:00	3.7%	44.1%	43.6%	9.1%	6.7%
2026-10-07T16:33:37+00:00	3.7%	44.1%	43.6%	9.1%	6.7%
2026-10-07T17:18:50+00:00	3.7%	44.1%	25.8%	9.1%	6.7%
2026-10-07T18:03:57+00:00	3.7%	44.1%	25.8%	9.1%	6.7%
2026-10-07T18:49:03+00:00	3.7%	44.1%	25.8%	9.1%	6.7%
2026-10-07T19:34:15+00:00	2.6%	44.1%	25.8%	62.9%	37.5%
2026-10-07T20:19:23+00:00	2.6%	44.1%	25.8%	62.9%	37.5%
2026-10-07T21:04:56+00:00	2.6%	44.1%	25.8%	62.9%	37.5%
2026-10-07T21:50:04+00:00	2.6%	44.1%	25.8%	62.9%	37.5%
2026-10-07T22:35:11+00:00	2.6%	44.1%	25.8%	62.9%	37.5%
2026-10-07T23:20:25+00:00	2.6%	44.1%	23.3%	62.9%	37.5%
2026-10-08T00:05:33+00:00	2.6%	44.1%	23.3%	62.9%	37.5%
2026-10-08T00:50:56+00:00	2.6%	44.1%	23.3%	62.9%	37.5%
2026-10-08T01:36:05+00:00	2.9%	44.1%	23.3%	62.9%	37.5%
2026-10-08T02:21:13+00:00	2.9%	44.1%	23.3%	62.9%	37.5%
2026-10-11T15:12:06+00:00	90.3%	52.1%	50.0%	37.7%	45.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	90.3%	52.1%	50.0%	37.7%	45.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	90.3%	52.1%	50.0%	37.7%	45.0%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	90.3%	52.1%	57.1%	37.7%	45.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	90.3%	52.1%	57.1%	37.7%	45.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	90.3%	52.1%	57.1%	37.7%	45.0%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	91.1%	52.1%	57.1%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	91.1%	52.1%	57.1%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	91.1%	52.1%	57.1%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	91.1%	52.1%	57.1%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	91.1%	52.1%	57.1%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	91.1%	52.1%	33.9%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	91.1%	52.1%	33.9%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	91.1%	52.1%	33.9%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	89.1%	52.1%	33.9%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	89.1%	52.1%	33.9%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	89.1%	52.1%	33.9%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-12T04:01:55+00:00	89.1%	52.1%	33.9%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	89.1%	52.1%	33.9%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	89.1%	52.1%	48.8%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	89.1%	52.1%	48.8%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	89.1%	52.1%	48.8%	37.7%	30.7%
2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00	92.8%	52.1%	48.8%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	92.8%	52.1%	48.8%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	92.8%	52.1%	48.8%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	92.8%	52.1%	48.8%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	92.8%	52.1%	48.8%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	92.8%	52.1%	53.8%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	92.8%	44.7%	53.8%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	92.8%	44.7%	53.8%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	92.8%	44.7%	53.8%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	92.5%	44.7%	52.6%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:44+00:00	92.5%	44.7%	52.6%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	92.5%	37.6%	52.6%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	92.5%	37.6%	51.3%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	92.5%	37.6%	51.3%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	92.5%	37.6%	51.3%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	92.5%	37.6%	51.3%	33.9%	11.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	92.1%	37.6%	51.3%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	92.1%	37.6%	51.3%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	92.1%	37.6%	51.3%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	92.1%	37.6%	51.3%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	92.1%	37.6%	46.2%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	92.1%	37.6%	46.2%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	92.1%	37.6%	46.2%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	92.1%	37.6%	46.2%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	91.8%	37.6%	46.2%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	91.8%	37.6%	46.2%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	91.8%	37.6%	46.2%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T04:16:20+00:00	91.8%	37.6%	46.2%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	91.8%	37.6%	56.4%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	91.8%	37.6%	56.4%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	91.8%	37.6%	56.4%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	91.8%	37.6%	56.4%	38.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T08:04:14+00:00	90.9%	37.6%	56.4%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	90.9%	37.6%	56.4%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	90.9%	37.6%	56.4%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	90.9%	37.6%	56.4%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	90.9%	39.9%	58.1%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	90.9%	39.9%	58.1%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	90.9%	39.9%	58.1%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	90.9%	39.9%	58.1%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	91.3%	39.9%	58.1%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	91.3%	34.0%	58.1%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	91.3%	34.1%	58.1%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	91.3%	34.1%	58.1%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	91.3%	34.1%	55.4%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	91.3%	34.1%	55.4%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	91.3%	34.1%	55.4%	37.4%	13.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	93.8%	34.1%	55.4%	37.4%	18.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	93.8%	34.1%	55.4%	37.4%	18.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	93.8%	34.1%	55.4%	37.4%	18.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	93.8%	34.1%	55.4%	37.4%	18.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	93.8%	34.1%	55.4%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	93.8%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	93.8%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	93.8%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	94.1%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	94.1%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:00	94.1%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	94.1%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	94.1%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	94.1%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	94.1%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	94.1%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	18.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	97.9%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	13.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	97.9%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	13.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	97.9%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	13.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	97.9%	34.1%	64.7%	40.5%	13.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	71.7°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	66.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	66.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	63.7°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	61.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261014-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 07 · 11:10 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗