KBOI / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

65%

40%

34%

14%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

ICONNO 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.20u · ICON −44.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	99.8%	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	41.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	64.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	42.8%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	42.5%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.1%	4.8%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	9.6%	2.3%	0.4%	—	48.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	22.6%	3.9%	94.1%	—	29.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	40.9%	1.8%	69.1%	—	29.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	33.7%	71.2%	64.1%	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	33.8%	67.8%	36.1%	—	40.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	0.9%	61.0%	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.8%	1.8%	62.9%	50.0%	—	48.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	36.8%	51.8%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	30.6%	49.1%	52.8%	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	37.9%	43.4%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	27.1%	45.1%	54.9%	—	45.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	29.9%	49.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	24.3%	41.8%	50.0%	—	47.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	21.3%	46.8%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	13.7%	41.3%	72.7%	—	46.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	18.3%	42.2%	0.0%	—	45.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	14.7%	41.9%	65.9%	0.8%	44.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	17.5%	40.5%	66.4%	—	44.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	19.9%	35.4%	70.2%	2.0%	45.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	20.9%	41.0%	66.3%	—	44.9%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	25.1%	48.7%	66.9%	7.0%	48.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	28.8%	52.8%	78.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	28.0%	52.9%	88.5%	6.8%	66.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	27.2%	59.0%	85.6%	—	68.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	23.8%	62.4%	81.9%	40.6%	63.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	17.0%	66.1%	73.3%	—	67.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	71.7°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	66.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	66.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	63.7°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	61.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261014-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 07 · 11:10 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗