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KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 08 · 10:40 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
66%
WN2
62%
HRES
19%
ICON
11%
AIFS
8%
Consensus
30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 37.2¢Risks 37.20u
VS
AIFSNO 62.8¢Risks 62.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.80u · AIFS −62.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-08T07:39:20+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-08T08:24:46+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-08T09:09:52+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-08T09:54:59+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-08T10:40:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.0% · 2026-10-08T07:39:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.0% · 2026-10-08T08:24:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.0% · 2026-10-08T09:09:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.0% · 2026-10-08T09:54:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.0% · 2026-10-08T10:40:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-08T07:39:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-08T08:24:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-08T09:09:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-08T09:54:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-08T10:40:07+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-08T07:39:20+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-08T08:24:46+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-08T09:09:52+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-08T09:54:59+00:00IFS HRES: 19.4% · 2026-10-08T10:40:07+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-08T07:39:20+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-08T08:24:46+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-08T09:09:52+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-08T09:54:59+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-08T10:40:07+00:0010-08 07:3910-08 09:0910-08 10:40
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-08T10:40:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-08T07:39:20+00:008.4%66.0%61.8%19.4%11.1%
2026-10-08T08:24:46+00:008.4%66.0%61.8%19.4%11.1%
2026-10-08T09:09:52+00:008.4%66.0%61.8%19.4%11.1%
2026-10-08T09:54:59+00:008.4%66.0%61.8%19.4%11.1%
2026-10-08T10:40:07+00:008.4%66.0%61.8%19.4%11.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble66%66.0°F8.5°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 262%64.1°F5.3°F2026-10-07 18:00Pending
National Blend53%63.0°F7.4°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending
IFS HRES19%57.0°F6.4°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending
ICON11%50.6°F9.8°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending
AIFS Single8%54.8°F5.6°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 08 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 63°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗