KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 08 · 10:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

62%

19%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.2¢Risks 37.20u

AIFSNO 62.8¢Risks 62.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.80u · AIFS −62.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	1.7%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	82.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	63.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	10.1%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.3%	11.8%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	71.4%	18.9%	10.2%	—	61.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	42.0%	74.6%	78.5%	—	81.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	80.0%	84.0%	94.6%	—	83.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	37.5%	73.2%	95.2%	—	90.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	83.2%	88.8%	89.9%	—	91.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	8.8%	87.7%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	83.3%	88.2%	91.3%	—	93.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	88.4%	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	92.1%	94.7%	94.5%	—	95.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	93.0%	98.7%	—	—	34.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	88.9%	98.1%	99.7%	—	95.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	90.4%	97.3%	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	90.1%	98.2%	97.2%	—	97.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	90.4%	98.4%	—	—	98.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	89.6%	98.3%	98.9%	—	98.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	92.5%	98.9%	0.2%	—	98.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	94.6%	99.1%	99.3%	—	99.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	94.8%	99.5%	99.1%	—	98.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	94.5%	99.5%	99.5%	72.4%	99.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	94.4%	99.4%	99.5%	—	99.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	94.7%	99.5%	99.6%	76.0%	99.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	96.0%	99.6%	99.5%	—	99.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	98.1%	99.5%	99.5%	87.0%	99.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	98.0%	99.3%	99.3%	—	99.5%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	97.4%	99.2%	99.4%	96.6%	99.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	96.6%	99.2%	99.4%	—	99.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	66.0°F	8.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	64.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	63.0°F	7.4°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	57.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	50.6°F	9.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	54.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 08 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 63°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗