KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

71%

68%

67%

60%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.4¢Risks 75.35u

WN2NO 24.6¢Risks 24.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.65u · WN2 −24.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00	95.6%	40.1%	17.6%	61.9%	66.2%
2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00	95.6%	40.1%	60.5%	61.9%	66.2%
2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00	95.6%	40.1%	60.5%	61.9%	66.2%
2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00	95.6%	40.1%	60.5%	61.9%	66.2%
2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00	95.6%	40.1%	60.5%	61.9%	66.2%
2026-10-10T08:03:37+00:00	95.6%	40.1%	60.5%	61.9%	24.1%
2026-10-10T08:48:42+00:00	95.6%	40.1%	60.5%	61.9%	24.1%
2026-10-10T09:33:47+00:00	95.6%	40.1%	60.5%	61.9%	24.1%
2026-10-10T10:19:01+00:00	95.6%	40.1%	60.5%	61.9%	24.1%
2026-10-10T11:04:11+00:00	95.6%	61.6%	60.5%	61.9%	24.1%
2026-10-10T11:49:17+00:00	95.6%	61.6%	60.5%	61.9%	24.1%
2026-10-10T12:34:22+00:00	95.6%	61.6%	60.5%	61.9%	24.1%
2026-10-10T13:19:28+00:00	95.6%	61.6%	60.5%	61.9%	24.1%
2026-10-10T14:05:00+00:00	94.0%	61.5%	60.4%	62.0%	24.8%
2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00	94.5%	62.4%	67.2%	65.5%	64.6%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	94.5%	62.4%	67.2%	65.5%	64.6%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	94.5%	62.4%	71.5%	65.5%	64.6%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	94.5%	62.4%	71.5%	65.5%	64.6%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	94.5%	62.4%	71.5%	65.5%	64.6%
2026-10-11T07:32:35+00:00	93.3%	62.4%	71.5%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	93.3%	62.4%	71.5%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	93.3%	62.4%	71.5%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	93.3%	62.4%	71.5%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T10:34:16+00:00	93.3%	62.4%	71.5%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	93.3%	66.7%	73.2%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	93.3%	66.7%	73.2%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	93.3%	66.7%	73.2%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	94.8%	66.7%	73.2%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	94.8%	66.7%	73.2%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T15:12:06+00:00	94.8%	67.2%	73.2%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	94.8%	67.2%	73.2%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	94.8%	67.2%	73.2%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	94.8%	67.2%	69.5%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	94.8%	67.2%	69.5%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	94.8%	67.2%	69.5%	62.6%	64.6%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	92.7%	67.2%	69.5%	68.4%	71.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	92.7%	67.2%	69.5%	68.4%	71.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	92.7%	67.2%	69.5%	68.4%	71.4%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	92.7%	67.2%	69.5%	68.4%	71.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	92.7%	67.2%	69.5%	68.4%	71.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	92.7%	66.7%	59.6%	68.4%	71.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	92.7%	66.7%	59.6%	68.4%	71.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	92.7%	66.7%	59.6%	68.4%	71.3%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	91.1%	66.7%	59.6%	68.4%	71.3%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	91.1%	66.7%	59.6%	68.4%	71.3%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	91.1%	66.7%	59.6%	68.4%	71.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	73.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	70.2°F	4.8°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	69.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	69.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗