KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

71%

68%

67%

60%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.4¢Risks 75.35u

WN2NO 24.6¢Risks 24.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.65u · WN2 −24.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	49.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	57.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	2.0%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	2.1%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	37.6%	3.9%	1.6%	—	28.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	13.2%	39.9%	44.9%	—	48.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	45.4%	51.5%	74.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	9.3%	35.2%	74.5%	—	62.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	46.7%	56.6%	59.1%	—	61.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	0.8%	53.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	44.8%	53.5%	60.4%	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	52.7%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	60.0%	67.8%	67.0%	—	68.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	61.2%	85.2%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	50.0%	80.3%	93.5%	—	68.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	52.0%	75.1%	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	50.0%	78.8%	73.2%	—	74.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	48.9%	79.5%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	45.6%	77.0%	81.7%	—	80.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	51.1%	81.0%	0.0%	—	80.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	55.8%	81.7%	84.0%	—	80.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	54.8%	86.1%	80.1%	—	73.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	51.2%	84.9%	84.1%	16.6%	77.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	48.7%	80.9%	83.4%	—	78.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	47.3%	81.8%	84.3%	16.5%	73.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	50.0%	82.7%	78.9%	—	72.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	60.1%	76.6%	77.8%	24.5%	78.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	56.0%	71.5%	71.5%	—	74.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	48.4%	66.8%	69.7%	43.7%	63.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	40.2%	63.0%	67.6%	—	77.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	73.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	70.2°F	4.8°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	69.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	69.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗