KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

65%

53%

41%

25%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

ICONNO 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.70u · ICON −47.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:55+00:00	87.1%	56.4%	48.9%	61.0%	63.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	87.1%	56.4%	48.9%	61.0%	63.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	87.1%	56.4%	52.1%	61.0%	63.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	87.1%	56.4%	52.1%	61.0%	63.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	87.1%	56.4%	52.1%	61.0%	63.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00	87.7%	56.4%	52.1%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	87.7%	56.4%	52.1%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	87.7%	56.4%	52.1%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	87.7%	56.4%	52.1%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	87.7%	56.4%	52.1%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	87.7%	56.4%	55.9%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	87.7%	55.4%	55.9%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	87.7%	55.4%	55.9%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	86.2%	55.4%	55.9%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	86.2%	55.4%	55.9%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T15:27:44+00:00	86.2%	55.4%	55.9%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	86.2%	47.1%	55.9%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	86.2%	47.1%	55.9%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	86.2%	47.1%	55.9%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	86.2%	47.1%	55.9%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	86.2%	47.1%	55.9%	58.9%	47.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	85.7%	47.1%	55.9%	62.3%	47.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	85.7%	47.1%	55.9%	62.3%	47.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	85.7%	47.1%	55.9%	62.3%	47.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	85.7%	47.1%	55.9%	62.3%	47.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	85.7%	47.1%	51.2%	62.3%	47.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	85.7%	47.1%	51.2%	62.3%	47.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	85.7%	47.1%	51.2%	62.3%	47.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	85.7%	47.1%	51.2%	62.3%	47.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	84.6%	47.1%	51.2%	62.3%	47.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	84.6%	47.1%	51.2%	62.3%	47.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	84.6%	47.1%	51.2%	62.3%	47.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	83.1%	41.0%	68.4%	59.6%	27.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	83.1%	41.0%	68.4%	59.6%	27.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	83.1%	41.0%	68.4%	59.9%	27.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	83.1%	41.0%	63.4%	59.9%	27.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	83.1%	41.0%	63.4%	59.9%	27.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	83.1%	41.0%	63.4%	59.9%	27.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	80.5%	41.0%	63.4%	53.3%	24.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	80.5%	41.0%	63.4%	53.3%	24.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	80.5%	41.0%	63.4%	53.3%	24.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	80.5%	41.0%	63.4%	53.3%	24.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	80.5%	41.0%	63.4%	53.3%	24.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	80.5%	41.0%	60.8%	53.2%	24.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	80.5%	41.0%	60.8%	53.2%	24.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	80.5%	41.0%	60.8%	53.2%	24.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	79.8%	41.0%	60.8%	53.2%	24.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	79.8%	41.0%	60.8%	53.2%	24.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	79.8%	41.0%	60.8%	53.2%	24.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:33+00:00	79.8%	41.0%	60.8%	53.2%	24.8%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	79.8%	41.0%	60.8%	53.2%	24.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	79.8%	41.0%	64.7%	53.2%	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:29+00:00	79.8%	41.0%	64.7%	53.2%	24.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	79.8%	41.0%	64.7%	53.2%	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	71.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	69.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	68.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	67.5°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗