KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

65%

53%

41%

25%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

ICONNO 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.70u · ICON −47.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	44.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	1.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	1.4%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	31.1%	2.6%	1.0%	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	9.6%	33.0%	37.8%	—	41.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	38.0%	43.9%	67.7%	—	42.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	6.4%	28.1%	67.7%	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	38.5%	48.3%	50.8%	—	53.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	0.4%	44.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	36.3%	44.8%	51.7%	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	43.7%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	50.9%	59.1%	58.2%	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	51.9%	79.0%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	40.4%	72.9%	89.8%	—	59.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	42.0%	66.5%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	39.8%	70.6%	64.1%	—	65.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	38.5%	71.2%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	35.1%	67.9%	73.6%	—	71.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	40.0%	72.4%	0.0%	—	71.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	44.2%	73.0%	75.8%	—	71.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	42.8%	78.4%	70.7%	—	63.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	38.9%	76.4%	75.4%	10.0%	66.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	36.1%	70.9%	74.1%	—	67.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	34.3%	71.6%	74.9%	9.5%	61.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	36.3%	72.4%	67.5%	—	59.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	45.7%	64.2%	65.5%	14.6%	66.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	41.0%	57.5%	57.5%	—	60.5%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	33.1%	51.6%	54.7%	29.0%	48.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	25.4%	46.7%	51.6%	—	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	71.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	69.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	68.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	67.5°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗