KBOI / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

83%

76%

72%

72%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 84.7¢Risks 84.65u

EPSNO 15.3¢Risks 15.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +15.35u · EPS −15.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00	97.0%	37.9%	7.2%	72.6%	63.5%
2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00	97.0%	37.9%	68.0%	72.6%	63.5%
2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00	97.0%	37.9%	68.0%	72.6%	63.5%
2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00	97.0%	37.9%	68.0%	72.6%	63.5%
2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00	97.0%	37.9%	68.0%	72.6%	63.5%
2026-10-10T08:03:37+00:00	97.5%	37.9%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T08:48:42+00:00	97.5%	37.9%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T09:33:47+00:00	97.5%	37.9%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T10:19:01+00:00	97.5%	37.9%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T11:04:11+00:00	97.5%	43.6%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T11:49:17+00:00	97.5%	43.6%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T12:34:22+00:00	97.5%	43.6%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T13:19:28+00:00	97.5%	43.6%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T14:05:00+00:00	96.1%	43.7%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T14:54:11+00:00	96.1%	44.4%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00	96.1%	44.3%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00	96.1%	44.3%	68.0%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00	96.1%	44.3%	73.9%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T17:55:11+00:00	96.1%	44.3%	73.9%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:00	96.1%	44.3%	73.9%	72.6%	10.7%
2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:00	96.5%	44.3%	73.9%	72.6%	71.8%
2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:00	96.5%	44.3%	73.9%	72.6%	71.8%
2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00	96.5%	44.3%	73.9%	72.6%	71.8%
2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:00	96.5%	44.3%	73.9%	72.6%	71.8%
2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00	96.5%	44.3%	73.9%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	96.5%	44.3%	73.9%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00	96.5%	44.3%	73.9%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	96.5%	44.3%	73.9%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	97.2%	44.3%	73.9%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	97.2%	44.3%	73.9%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	97.2%	44.3%	73.9%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00	97.2%	44.3%	73.9%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	97.2%	44.3%	73.9%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	97.2%	44.3%	81.7%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	97.2%	44.3%	81.7%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	97.2%	44.3%	81.7%	75.3%	71.8%
2026-10-11T07:32:35+00:00	97.1%	44.3%	81.7%	76.2%	71.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	97.1%	44.3%	81.7%	76.2%	71.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	97.1%	44.3%	81.7%	76.2%	71.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	97.1%	44.3%	81.7%	76.2%	71.8%
2026-10-11T10:34:16+00:00	97.1%	44.3%	81.7%	76.2%	71.8%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	97.1%	71.8%	82.7%	76.2%	71.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	97.1%	71.8%	82.7%	76.2%	71.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	97.1%	71.8%	82.7%	76.2%	71.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	97.7%	71.8%	82.7%	76.2%	71.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	97.7%	71.6%	82.6%	76.1%	71.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	80.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	74.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	74.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	73.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	74.5°F	7.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗