KBOI / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

83%

76%

72%

72%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 84.7¢Risks 84.65u

EPSNO 15.3¢Risks 15.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +15.35u · EPS −15.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	4.3%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	0.0%	46.0%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	43.0%	61.8%	0.2%	—	60.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	89.4%	1.3%	14.4%	79.0%	—	73.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	53.8%	29.6%	94.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	0.2%	81.1%	85.5%	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	59.9%	90.3%	91.3%	—	81.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	3.0%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	67.8%	88.7%	98.3%	—	77.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	65.8%	89.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	59.1%	89.0%	89.0%	—	84.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.3%	65.7%	89.6%	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	70.4%	89.3%	93.8%	—	87.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	73.5%	93.0%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	75.7%	93.9%	93.3%	—	91.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	76.3%	94.2%	—	—	88.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	75.3%	95.5%	94.7%	—	89.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	76.9%	93.3%	0.0%	—	90.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	75.8%	93.9%	94.9%	53.5%	89.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	78.4%	94.5%	96.0%	—	90.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	75.4%	95.1%	96.3%	51.2%	92.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	74.1%	96.8%	96.0%	—	93.2%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	78.0%	95.7%	96.3%	63.2%	92.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	80.9%	96.0%	95.3%	—	94.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	84.6%	96.5%	97.7%	73.2%	97.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	86.4%	97.3%	99.0%	—	96.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	85.8%	98.2%	97.8%	89.8%	95.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	83.0%	97.9%	98.1%	—	97.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	80.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	74.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	74.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	73.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	74.5°F	7.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗