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KBOI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
94%
HRES
86%
ICON
82%
AIFS
42%
WN2
35%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 64.6¢Risks 64.65u
VS
WN2NO 35.4¢Risks 35.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.35u · WN2 −35.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00AIFS Single: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-11T15:12:07+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T15:12:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T15:12:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.1% · 2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.1% · 2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.1% · 2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.1% · 2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.1% · 2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.1% · 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T15:12:07+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00ICON: 82.5% · 2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00ICON: 82.5% · 2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00ICON: 82.5% · 2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00ICON: 82.5% · 2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00ICON: 82.5% · 2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00ICON: 82.5% · 2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00ICON: 82.5% · 2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00ICON: 82.5% · 2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00ICON: 82.5% · 2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00ICON: 82.5% · 2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00ICON: 82.5% · 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:0010-11 11:2010-11 19:4310-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:0055.7%94.2%49.2%85.8%—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:0055.7%94.2%49.2%85.8%—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:0055.7%94.2%49.2%85.8%—
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:0076.9%94.2%49.2%85.8%—
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:0076.8%94.2%49.2%85.8%—
2026-10-11T15:12:07+00:0076.8%94.2%49.2%85.8%—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:0076.8%94.2%49.2%85.8%—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:0076.8%94.2%49.2%85.8%—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:0076.8%94.2%67.2%85.8%—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:0076.8%94.2%67.2%85.8%—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:0076.8%94.2%67.2%85.8%—
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:0054.3%94.2%67.2%85.5%82.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:0054.3%94.2%67.2%85.5%82.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:0054.3%94.2%67.2%85.5%82.5%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:0054.3%94.2%67.2%85.5%82.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:0054.3%94.2%67.2%85.5%82.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:0054.3%94.2%35.1%85.5%82.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:0054.3%94.2%35.1%85.5%82.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:0054.3%94.2%35.1%85.5%82.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:0042.2%94.2%35.1%85.5%82.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:0042.2%94.2%35.1%85.5%82.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:0042.2%94.2%35.1%85.5%82.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble94%75.3°F3.7°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
IFS HRES86%76.2°F6.3°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending
ICON82%78.7°F9.9°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending
National Blend53%70.0°F7.7°F2026-10-11 06:00Pending
AIFS Single42%68.4°F5.6°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 235%67.6°F5.0°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261018-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗