KBOI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

82%

42%

35%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.6¢Risks 64.65u

WN2NO 35.4¢Risks 35.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.35u · WN2 −35.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	3.8%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	66.5%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	70.5%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	92.5%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	79.6%	75.9%	7.4%	—	81.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	58.7%	46.4%	77.4%	—	86.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	76.6%	64.9%	67.7%	—	90.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	75.2%	71.9%	52.4%	—	87.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	82.2%	40.9%	67.0%	—	79.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	5.6%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	77.9%	39.6%	68.6%	—	87.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	66.6%	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	82.8%	45.4%	44.5%	—	88.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	83.5%	41.5%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	88.4%	62.4%	87.9%	—	91.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	72.6%	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	74.1%	47.9%	50.0%	—	83.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	83.7%	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	64.9%	61.8%	37.1%	—	86.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	74.2%	71.4%	0.0%	—	85.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	73.0%	57.0%	41.9%	—	79.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	87.4%	57.2%	42.8%	—	76.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.4%	75.4%	75.4%	48.8%	25.6%	87.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	85.0%	79.1%	51.3%	—	91.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	88.7%	79.0%	58.0%	28.4%	89.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	88.2%	86.1%	48.6%	—	90.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	89.8%	87.0%	41.4%	31.8%	92.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	80.8%	95.6%	53.0%	—	94.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	78.6%	91.1%	46.8%	51.6%	85.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	91.4%	66.1%	84.0%	64.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	76.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	82%	78.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	68.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	67.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261018-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗