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KBOI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 11 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
78%
EPS
75%
AIFS
42%
WN2
19%
Consensus
52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 48.2¢Risks 48.20u
VS
WN2NO 51.8¢Risks 51.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.80u · WN2 −51.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-11T07:32:35+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-11T10:34:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-11T07:32:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-11T10:34:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-11T07:32:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.8% · 2026-10-11T10:34:16+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:35+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T10:34:16+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:34:16+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:35+00:0041.5%74.8%18.8%77.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:0041.5%74.8%18.8%77.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:0041.5%74.8%18.8%77.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:0041.5%74.8%18.8%77.6%
2026-10-11T10:34:16+00:0041.5%74.8%18.8%77.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES78%76.3°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble75%75.3°F5.7°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending
National Blend54%72.0°F5.5°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
AIFS Single42%70.3°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 219%66.8°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261018-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗