KBOI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 11 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

75%

42%

19%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 48.2¢Risks 48.20u

WN2NO 51.8¢Risks 51.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.80u · WN2 −51.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	1.9%	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	54.4%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	58.4%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	86.5%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	68.3%	63.8%	3.6%	—	70.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	44.2%	32.3%	65.0%	—	76.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	63.5%	50.0%	53.0%	—	81.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	61.0%	57.1%	36.7%	—	77.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	69.2%	25.8%	50.8%	—	65.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	2.2%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	62.9%	24.1%	51.7%	—	75.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	49.1%	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	68.6%	28.2%	27.4%	—	77.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	69.1%	24.6%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	76.0%	43.2%	75.3%	—	81.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	54.0%	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	55.1%	28.5%	30.3%	—	67.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	67.4%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	43.5%	40.3%	19.0%	—	71.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	53.4%	50.0%	0.0%	—	68.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	51.2%	34.1%	21.5%	—	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	70.7%	33.6%	21.6%	—	54.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	52.5%	52.5%	25.6%	10.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	65.1%	56.4%	26.9%	—	77.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	70.5%	55.4%	31.9%	10.7%	72.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	68.8%	65.0%	23.2%	—	73.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	70.7%	65.5%	17.2%	11.5%	75.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	54.5%	82.8%	24.8%	—	80.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	50.0%	71.0%	19.2%	22.6%	60.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	33.9%	56.6%	32.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	76.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	75.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	70.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	66.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261018-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗