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KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
79%
AIFS
78%
EPS
74%
WN2
70%
ICON
61%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 70.3¢Risks 35.17u
VS
ICONNO 29.6¢Risks 14.82u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +14.82u · ICON −14.82u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00AIFS Single: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00IFS HRES: 84.6% · 2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00IFS HRES: 84.6% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00IFS HRES: 84.6% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00IFS HRES: 84.6% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS HRES: 84.6% · 2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00IFS HRES: 84.6% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00IFS HRES: 79.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00ICON: 70.4% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:0010-15 15:3410-15 21:3610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:0083.1%73.8%71.4%84.6%70.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:0083.1%73.8%71.4%84.6%70.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:0083.1%73.8%73.2%84.6%70.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:0083.1%73.8%73.2%84.6%70.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:0083.1%73.8%73.2%84.6%70.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:0083.1%73.8%73.2%84.6%70.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:0087.6%73.8%73.2%79.4%61.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:0087.6%73.8%73.2%79.4%61.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:0087.6%73.8%73.2%79.4%61.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:0087.6%73.8%73.2%79.4%61.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:0087.6%73.8%70.5%79.4%61.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:0087.6%73.8%70.5%79.4%61.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:0087.6%73.8%70.5%79.4%61.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:0077.7%73.8%70.5%79.4%61.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:0077.7%73.8%70.5%79.4%61.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:0077.7%73.8%70.5%79.4%61.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:0077.7%73.8%70.5%79.4%61.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES79%76.6°F5.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single78%76.0°F4.6°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble74%75.2°F4.2°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 270%74.5°F3.7°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
ICON61%73.9°F4.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
NWS forecast54%73.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 15:00Pending
National Blend54%73.0°F5.6°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗