KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

78%

74%

70%

61%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 70.3¢Risks 35.17u

ICONNO 29.6¢Risks 14.82u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +14.82u · ICON −14.82u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	2.5%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	46.8%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	41.9%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	50.7%	82.5%	1.0%	—	77.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	42.7%	23.7%	58.0%	—	60.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	68.4%	82.1%	17.4%	—	33.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	89.2%	65.5%	—	54.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	42.5%	81.0%	0.2%	—	82.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	10.3%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	57.8%	82.2%	92.7%	—	84.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	46.4%	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	47.2%	88.1%	69.5%	—	81.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	26.1%	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	74.5%	89.3%	90.2%	—	91.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	69.2%	91.6%	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	78.1%	80.3%	93.6%	—	89.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	82.4%	83.7%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	83.1%	85.7%	91.0%	87.5%	0.0%	94.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	87.1%	94.6%	0.0%	—	95.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	84.7%	95.2%	69.0%	59.2%	94.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	84.8%	94.5%	77.5%	—	95.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	91.0%	97.4%	72.4%	—	97.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	87.2%	96.3%	92.8%	—	97.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	87.4%	97.2%	77.0%	48.7%	97.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	88.2%	97.3%	82.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	91.6%	98.1%	66.9%	70.7%	98.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	92.0%	98.6%	85.6%	—	98.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	93.4%	98.9%	84.8%	90.4%	97.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	89.3%	98.3%	85.0%	—	98.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	79%	76.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	76.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	75.2°F	4.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	61%	73.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗