KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

67%

63%

51%

30%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.1¢Risks 56.10u

ICONNO 43.9¢Risks 43.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.90u · ICON −43.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:23+00:00	61.9%	42.3%	44.1%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	61.9%	42.3%	54.7%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	61.9%	42.3%	54.7%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	61.9%	42.3%	54.7%	58.0%	47.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	76.2%	42.3%	54.7%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	76.2%	42.3%	54.7%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	76.2%	42.3%	54.7%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	76.2%	42.3%	54.7%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	76.2%	42.3%	54.7%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	76.2%	43.6%	58.9%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	76.2%	43.6%	58.9%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	76.2%	43.6%	58.9%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	81.8%	43.6%	58.9%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	81.9%	43.7%	58.9%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	58.9%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	58.9%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	61.4%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	61.4%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	61.4%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	61.4%	68.7%	45.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	61.4%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	61.4%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	61.4%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	61.4%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	60.2%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	60.2%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	60.2%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	60.2%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	60.2%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	60.2%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	60.2%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:37+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	60.2%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	68.6%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	68.6%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	68.6%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	81.9%	45.4%	68.6%	64.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00	85.1%	45.4%	68.6%	71.4%	38.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	85.1%	45.4%	68.6%	71.4%	38.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	85.1%	45.4%	68.6%	71.4%	38.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	85.1%	45.4%	68.6%	71.4%	38.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00	85.1%	48.2%	74.3%	71.4%	38.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	85.1%	48.2%	74.3%	71.4%	38.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	85.1%	48.2%	74.3%	71.4%	38.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	85.1%	48.2%	74.3%	71.4%	38.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	84.5%	48.2%	74.3%	71.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:25+00:00	82.6%	50.9%	70.9%	66.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	82.6%	50.9%	63.4%	66.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	82.6%	50.9%	63.4%	66.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	82.6%	50.9%	63.4%	66.7%	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	80.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	78.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	77.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	76.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	74.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗