KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

67%

63%

51%

30%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.1¢Risks 56.10u

ICONNO 43.9¢Risks 43.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.90u · ICON −43.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	23.1%	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	18.9%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	24.6%	59.1%	0.1%	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	17.9%	7.4%	29.7%	—	31.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	38.7%	56.1%	4.4%	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	34.5%	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	15.2%	51.7%	0.0%	—	53.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	1.7%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	24.8%	51.7%	71.6%	—	56.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	16.1%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	16.0%	60.0%	33.9%	—	49.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	5.6%	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	37.6%	60.6%	62.4%	—	65.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	30.8%	64.7%	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	39.8%	42.8%	68.8%	—	58.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	44.7%	46.8%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	48.9%	59.7%	52.2%	0.0%	68.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	50.0%	68.5%	0.0%	—	71.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	44.2%	69.0%	25.1%	17.5%	66.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	42.8%	65.3%	32.5%	—	69.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	53.7%	75.4%	25.6%	—	75.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	43.6%	68.7%	56.4%	—	76.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	42.0%	71.6%	27.3%	8.4%	71.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	41.7%	70.0%	32.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	47.1%	73.2%	15.4%	18.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	80.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	78.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	77.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	76.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	74.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗