WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
86%
WN2
86%
EPS
85%
HRES
81%
ICON
81%
Consensus
82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 83.2¢Risks 20.81u
VS
ICONNO 16.8¢Risks 4.19u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.19u · ICON −4.19u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-14T11:21:01+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.3% · 2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.9% · 2026-10-14T11:21:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.9% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.9% · 2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.9% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.9% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.2% · 2026-10-14T11:21:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.2% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.2% · 2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 80.8% · 2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:00IFS HRES: 80.8% · 2026-10-14T11:21:01+00:00IFS HRES: 80.8% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS HRES: 80.8% · 2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 80.8% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 80.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00ICON: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:00ICON: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00ICON: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00ICON: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00ICON: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00ICON: 95.2% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-14T11:21:01+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00ICON: 80.6% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:0010-14 03:0010-14 09:0110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:0087.6%93.3%79.5%48.1%95.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:0087.6%93.3%79.5%48.1%95.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:0087.6%93.3%79.5%48.1%95.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:0087.6%93.3%79.5%48.1%95.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:0087.6%93.3%79.5%48.1%95.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:0087.6%93.3%79.5%48.1%95.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:0082.7%93.3%79.5%48.1%80.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:0082.7%93.3%79.5%48.1%80.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:0082.7%93.3%79.5%48.1%80.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:0082.7%93.3%79.5%48.1%80.7%
2026-10-14T10:34:32+00:0082.7%93.3%79.5%80.8%80.7%
2026-10-14T11:21:01+00:0082.7%84.9%86.2%80.8%80.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:0082.7%84.9%86.2%80.8%80.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:0082.7%84.9%86.2%80.8%80.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:0085.9%84.9%86.2%80.8%80.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:0085.9%84.9%85.8%80.7%80.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single86%62.3°F5.4°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 286%61.5°F4.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble85%71.4°F14.5°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES81%62.2°F6.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON81%62.6°F7.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend72%61.0°F7.9°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%57.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗