KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

86%

85%

81%

81%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 83.2¢Risks 20.81u

ICONNO 16.8¢Risks 4.19u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.19u · ICON −4.19u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	90.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	89.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	57.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	50.6%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	71.6%	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	7.2%	44.6%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	98.3%	81.6%	42.3%	—	78.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	67.7%	99.8%	89.0%	—	94.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	58.3%	93.2%	16.9%	—	99.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	52.4%	95.9%	99.9%	—	99.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	53.3%	99.9%	82.7%	—	99.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	6.4%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	97.6%	99.9%	99.4%	—	99.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	95.5%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	99.8%	99.5%	—	99.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.9%	99.9%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.6%	100.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	16.1%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	100.0%	—	100.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	62.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	61.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	85%	71.4°F	14.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	62.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	81%	62.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	72%	61.0°F	7.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗