KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

92%

82%

65%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 82.1¢Risks 82.10u

ICONNO 17.9¢Risks 17.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +17.90u · ICON −17.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:43+00:00	76.0%	81.6%	74.0%	71.3%	71.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	76.0%	81.6%	74.0%	71.3%	71.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	76.0%	81.6%	74.0%	71.3%	71.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	76.0%	81.6%	82.2%	71.3%	71.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	76.0%	81.6%	82.2%	71.3%	71.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	76.0%	81.6%	82.2%	71.3%	71.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	99.3%	81.6%	82.2%	99.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	99.3%	81.6%	82.2%	99.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	99.3%	81.6%	82.2%	99.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	99.3%	81.6%	82.2%	99.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	99.3%	81.6%	82.2%	99.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	99.3%	81.7%	95.3%	99.3%	64.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	99.3%	81.7%	95.3%	99.3%	64.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	99.3%	81.7%	95.3%	99.3%	64.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	92.1%	81.7%	95.3%	99.3%	64.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	92.1%	81.7%	95.3%	99.3%	64.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	92.1%	81.7%	95.3%	99.3%	64.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	74.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	66.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	66.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	71.1°F	13.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	61.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	61.0°F	7.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗