KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

92%

82%

65%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 82.1¢Risks 82.10u

ICONNO 17.9¢Risks 17.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +17.90u · ICON −17.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	84.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	38.2%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	59.7%	—	—	87.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	3.6%	31.8%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	96.1%	70.8%	29.2%	—	66.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	53.6%	99.3%	80.6%	—	89.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	43.2%	86.7%	9.0%	—	98.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	36.7%	91.0%	99.7%	—	98.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	36.9%	99.6%	70.0%	—	98.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	2.5%	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	93.8%	99.7%	98.0%	—	98.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	89.2%	99.9%	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	99.8%	99.2%	98.2%	—	98.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.6%	99.7%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	99.7%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	99.2%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%	0.1%	100.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	6.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	74.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	66.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	66.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	71.1°F	13.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	61.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	61.0°F	7.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗