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KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
81%
WN2
44%
AIFS
40%
HRES
28%
ICON
24%
Consensus
40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 52.2¢Risks 52.15u
VS
ICONNO 47.8¢Risks 47.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.85u · ICON −47.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-13T08:04:14+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-13T08:04:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-13T08:04:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-13T08:04:14+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00ICON: 23.7% · 2026-10-13T08:04:14+00:00ICON: 23.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00ICON: 23.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00ICON: 23.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:0010-13 08:0410-13 09:3410-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:04:14+00:0039.5%80.6%44.1%28.0%23.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:0039.5%80.6%44.1%28.0%23.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:0039.5%80.6%44.1%28.0%23.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:0039.5%80.6%44.1%28.0%23.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble81%70.9°F13.2°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
National Blend52%60.0°F8.8°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 244%58.7°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
AIFS Single40%58.0°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS HRES28%55.8°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON24%52.4°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗