KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

44%

40%

28%

24%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.2¢Risks 52.15u

ICONNO 47.8¢Risks 47.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.85u · ICON −47.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	32.4%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	53.2%	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	26.0%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	94.4%	64.4%	23.5%	—	59.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	46.4%	98.9%	75.1%	—	85.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	35.8%	82.1%	6.3%	—	97.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	29.5%	87.3%	99.5%	—	97.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	90.3%	29.3%	99.2%	62.3%	—	97.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	1.5%	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	90.6%	99.4%	96.6%	—	97.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	84.5%	99.7%	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	99.6%	98.6%	97.0%	—	97.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	99.2%	99.4%	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	99.4%	99.8%	—	99.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.5%	98.5%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.7%	99.8%	99.9%	0.1%	100.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	3.3%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	81%	70.9°F	13.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	60.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	58.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	58.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	55.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	52.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗