KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

67%

51%

25%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 57.2¢Risks 57.25u

HRESNO 42.8¢Risks 42.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.75u · HRES −42.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	32.8%	87.7%	51.6%	22.9%	20.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	32.8%	87.7%	51.6%	22.9%	20.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	32.8%	87.7%	51.6%	22.9%	20.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	32.8%	87.7%	51.6%	22.9%	20.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	7.2%	87.7%	51.6%	22.9%	20.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	7.2%	86.9%	51.6%	22.9%	20.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	7.2%	86.9%	51.6%	22.9%	20.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	7.2%	86.9%	51.6%	22.9%	20.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	7.2%	86.9%	38.9%	22.9%	20.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	7.2%	86.9%	38.9%	22.9%	20.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	7.2%	86.9%	38.9%	22.9%	20.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	44.3%	86.9%	38.9%	22.9%	89.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	44.3%	86.9%	38.9%	22.9%	89.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	44.3%	86.9%	38.9%	22.9%	89.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	44.3%	86.9%	38.9%	22.9%	89.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	44.3%	86.9%	38.9%	24.9%	89.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	44.3%	86.9%	50.8%	24.9%	89.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	44.3%	86.9%	50.8%	24.9%	89.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	44.3%	86.9%	50.8%	24.9%	89.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	67.2%	86.9%	50.8%	24.9%	89.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	67.2%	86.9%	50.8%	24.9%	89.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	90%	73.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	72.4°F	10.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	63.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	61.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	60.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	56.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 61°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗