KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

67%

51%

25%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 57.2¢Risks 57.25u

HRESNO 42.8¢Risks 42.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.75u · HRES −42.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	77.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	27.0%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	46.8%	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	1.6%	20.8%	—	—	56.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	92.1%	57.7%	18.4%	—	52.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	39.2%	98.2%	69.0%	—	80.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	28.9%	76.6%	4.2%	—	96.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	23.0%	82.6%	99.1%	—	96.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.2%	22.5%	98.7%	54.2%	—	95.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	0.9%	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	86.4%	98.8%	94.6%	—	96.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	78.5%	99.4%	—	—	98.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	99.1%	97.5%	95.0%	—	95.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	98.5%	98.9%	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.6%	98.8%	99.6%	—	99.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.0%	97.2%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.4%	99.6%	99.7%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	99.9%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	1.7%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	90%	73.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	72.4°F	10.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	63.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	61.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	60.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	56.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 61°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗