KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

93%

90%

37%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

ICONNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +31.90u · ICON −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:33+00:00	80.3%	75.5%	84.8%	97.7%	48.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	80.3%	75.5%	84.8%	97.7%	48.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	80.3%	75.5%	83.8%	97.7%	48.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:29+00:00	80.3%	75.5%	83.8%	97.7%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	80.3%	75.5%	83.8%	97.7%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00	72.0%	75.5%	83.8%	99.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	72.0%	75.5%	83.8%	99.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	72.0%	75.5%	83.8%	99.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	72.0%	75.5%	83.8%	99.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	72.0%	75.5%	89.7%	99.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	72.0%	75.5%	89.7%	99.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	72.0%	97.2%	89.7%	99.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:36+00:00	72.0%	97.2%	89.7%	99.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	92.9%	97.2%	89.7%	99.3%	36.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	92.9%	97.2%	89.7%	99.3%	36.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	75.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	66.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	64.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	37%	59.5°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗