KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

93%

90%

37%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

ICONNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +31.90u · ICON −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	22.0%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	40.3%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	1.1%	16.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	89.1%	50.7%	14.1%	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	32.3%	97.2%	62.3%	—	75.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	22.8%	70.4%	2.8%	—	95.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	17.4%	77.0%	98.5%	—	94.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	16.8%	97.8%	45.8%	—	92.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	0.5%	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	81.0%	98.0%	91.7%	—	94.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	71.3%	98.9%	—	—	97.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	98.4%	95.9%	92.1%	—	92.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	97.3%	97.9%	—	—	98.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.3%	97.7%	99.2%	—	99.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	98.1%	95.1%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	98.8%	99.2%	99.4%	0.0%	99.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.5%	99.8%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	99.9%	0.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	100.0%	—	100.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	75.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	66.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	64.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	37%	59.5°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗